7PM ET BOS Red Sox (+115) vs NY Yankees (-135)
Kutter Crawford vs Luis Gil
After a resounding 14-4 victory by the Yankees last night, the stage is set for another intense showdown between these storied rivals. The Yankees, in a desperate spot, secured a much-needed win, and will now look to keep that momentum and win the rubber match of this series. Let's dive into how I am attacking this game!
On the Mound
Luis Gil was having an impressive season, even being considered a Cy Young candidate until his recent struggles. Allowing 7ER, 5ER and 4ER to the Orioles, Mets and Reds respectively is likely to hurt any pitcher's confidence. Funny enough, his last strong outing was against these Red Sox, where he allowed just one run over five innings at Fenway Park. However, since that game, Gil has been far less effective, getting roughed up in subsequent starts. The Red Sox, now with a second look at Gil, will have more information on how to approach his pitches, increasing their chances of early success.
Kutter Crawford, on the other hand, has been far more steady lately has shown a consistent pattern of performing better on the road. This season has been no exception as Crawford's road ERA is nearly 2 runs lower than his home ERA, and he had a strong June posting a WHIP of 1.03.
At the Plate
Yesterday's blowout was largely driven by an extraordinary performance from Ben Rice, who hit three home runs and collected seven RBIs. Such standout performances are rare and not easily replicated. Without Rice’s heroics, the game might have been much closer. I think the 14 runs masks a bit of the Yankees offensive struggles and I'm not convinced they have fully turned it back around. They still only have 3 bats in the lineup that have been cooking, which are Judge, Soto and now Rice, but still need to see the others get back to performing in key spots. On top of this, the Red Sox offense, having been humbled yesterday, will be eager to bounce back. Historically, teams that suffer such heavy defeats often come out with greater focus and determination in the next game. Expect Boston’s hitters to be more disciplined and strategic in their approach against Gil.
Best Bet
Given the factors at play, the best bet for tonight’s game is the Red Sox First 5 runline. Boston will get a second shot at Gil, Crawford should maintain his road effectiveness, and the motivation to bounce back after a heavy loss will push Boston towards a strong start to this game. Betting on the first five innings allows us to capitalize on these advantages while avoiding the unpredictability of the bullpens.