6:45PM ET STL Cardinals (+102) vs PIT Pirates (-122)
Kyle Gibson vs Mitch Keller
With Mitch Keller and Kyle Gibson taking the mound, let’s dive into this NL Central matchup between two teams that will likely be competing for a Wild Card spot.
On The Mound
Mitch Keller has been a bright spot in the Pirates’ rotation this season, posting impressive numbers. His pitching profile has been very solid underneath the hood, with strong whiff, walk and barrel rates. However, even with Keller’s strong performances, the Pirates' offensive struggles make it difficult for them to consistently support their pitching. In contrast, Kyle Gibson has been a reliable presence for the Cardinals, typically providing solid outings and keeping his team in games. While he may not dominate, he consistently delivers around five steady innings, giving the Cardinals a chance to stay competitive.
At The Plate
One of the most critical aspects of this game is the stark contrast in offensive production between the two teams. The Pirates’ lineup has been anemic, holding an 86 wRC+, which ranks among the worst in the league. In June, their offensive woes were particularly pronounced, making them the third-worst offense in baseball during that month. This regression at the plate has severely hampered their ability to win games, even with solid pitching performances.
On the other hand, the Cardinals’ offense, while not elite, has been more productive. They have shown the ability to generate runs and support their pitching staff more effectively than the Pirates. This offensive edge could be decisive in a game where both teams are likely to rely heavily on their starters to set the tone.
The Spot Favors St Louis
The Pirates are coming off a nice victory over the Braves on Sunday. But in general they have not been good in these spots. Pittsburgh is just 4-8 after a day off this season and have gone 14-21 vs teams above .500.
In contrast, the Cardinals have taken advantage of weaker teams to boost their record this season, going 19-10 against teams below .500. Additionally, St Louis is 17-10 in pickem style games when the line is -120 or less.
The Best Bet: Cardinals Money Line at +102
Bottom line in this one is I make the Cardinals a short favorite and think we have some value here despite the starting pitching advantage for Pittsburgh. The Cards have the better lineup and will also have the edge once this game gets to the bullpens.
PICK: CARDINALS ML (+102)
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