Listen, we are getting a Mavs/Celtics finals, but we take this game by game. So let's see what we can find out for tonight's Game 4 in the Western Conference Finals.
The Wolves are Hunting for Answers
Minnesota’s offense has been puzzling, with Anthony Edwards averaging just 22 PPG on 38.6% shooting and Karl-Anthony Towns at 15 PPG on a dismal 27.8% shooting. Towns’ poor performance has even seen him benched in favor of Naz Reid during critical moments. However, with Dereck Lively II out due to injury, the Mavericks’ interior defense will be less formidable. This opens up opportunities for Edwards and Towns to get better looks inside. Lively has also been terrific as the screener in the Mavericks pick and roll game, which may also take a hit due to his absence. At the end of the day, it's been about the clutch minutes. The Timberwolves’ offensive rating drops significantly in the fourth quarter, down to 95.5, compared to 114.3 for the full game. Their late-game offense has been stagnant, but there's a chance that these shooting woes regress to the mean, especially in a do-or-die game.
Dallas' Has Won the Battle of Superstars
Without Lively, the Mavericks will rely more on Daniel Gafford and potentially Dwight Powell. Gafford, while effective defensively, has not provided significant scoring or rebounding when given extended minutes. This adjustment period for Dallas’s defense could be advantageous for Minnesota. Whichever way you slice it, the reason this isn't a 2-1 series is that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have outperformed Edwards and Towns. However, with a game to prep for Lively's absence, Edwards showed signs of finding his stride in Game 3, nearly posting a triple-double with 26 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. If Edwards can maintain this level of play, Minnesota's chances improve dramatically.
The Mavericks Are Advancing, It's Just a Matter of When
Teams down 0-3 rarely come back, but Minnesota's situation isn't as bleak as it seems. The point margin across the first three games is just 13 points. Historically, teams in similar positions have found ways to extend series. To be clear, Minnesota is dead in the series and will not win it, but given the tight margins in the first 3 games, there's value in betting on the Timberwolves to win Game 4 and push the series a game further.
Best Bet
Minnesota has the potential to capitalize on Dallas’s defensive vulnerabilities and extend the series. The pressure now shifts to the Mavericks to close this out in front of their home crowd, and I expect Minnesota to play loose and carefree. If they can maintain their level of play into the 4th quarter they can send this back to Minnesota for a Game 5.
Best Bet: Timberwolves Moneyline (+105)
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