Saturday, December 7th, 2024
8PM ET CLEM Tigers vs SMU Mustangs (-2.5) | 55.5
The stage is set for the ACC Championship Game as the Clemson Tigers take on the SMU Mustangs in a high-stakes matchup with playoff implications. The winner punches their ticket to the postseason, while the loser will likely find themselves on the outside looking in.
It may not seem like it at first, but I believe this matchup heavily favors Clemson in the trenches, and that’s often where championship games are won and lost. The Tigers boast one of the most physical and disciplined fronts on both sides of the ball, giving them a significant advantage over SMU.
Last week, Clemson’s defense impressed against a high-powered South Carolina offense. The Tigers' defensive line completely stymied the Gamecocks’ attack, holding them to minimal production and making life miserable for their quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Despite the loss, it was apparent to me after the fact that Clemson was the right side in that game. SMU has not faced a defensive front of this caliber all season, and I am concerned that the adjustment could be overwhelming.
On offense, Clemson’s line paved the way for an efficient ground game against South Carolina, averaging nearly 5 yards per carry. Despite scoring just 14 points, the Tigers consistently moved the ball and controlled the pace of play. It was a very misleading final score and box score in my opinion. Against an SMU defense with a questionable strength of schedule, Clemson’s physicality in the trenches should allow them to establish the run and wear down the Mustangs.
SMU has enjoyed a fantastic season, but their flaws could be exposed in this matchup. The Mustangs have struggled with penalties all year, a liability that could be magnified in a game of this magnitude. Clemson is a disciplined team under head coach Dabo Swinney, and their ability to avoid costly mistakes could tilt the scales.
Moreover, SMU’s strength of schedule is suspect. The Mustangs have not faced a team with Clemson’s combination of talent, physicality, and experience. The step up in competition, coupled with the pressure of a championship environment, could lead to mistakes that Clemson is well-equipped to capitalize on. You can make the argument that the best team SMU has played all season long was BYU all the way back in Week 3. They also won at Duke by 1 point in overtime despite committing 6 turnovers in that game. Regression usually gets to you against very good defenses and that's what I am expecting here.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has shown steady improvement throughout the season, and his performance last week against South Carolina was a testament to his growth. While the Tigers only managed 14 points, Klubnik demonstrated poise and efficiency, converting key third downs and keeping the offense on schedule.
The betting trends are also overwhelmingly in Clemson’s favor:
Dabo Swinney as an Underdog: Swinney thrives in the underdog role, boasting a 9-3 ATS record on neutral fields as a dog, with eight outright wins.
ATS Losing Streak Rebound: Clemson has failed to cover in their last three games, but teams on a 3-game ATS losing streak heading into conference championship weekend are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS over the last 20 years.
Best Bet
Clemson has the edge in the trenches, the experience in high-pressure situations, and a head coach who knows how to prepare his team for championship games. While SMU has had a strong season, they face a significant step up in competition and are likely to struggle against the Tigers’ physicality and discipline.
PICK: CLEMSON +2.5 (-110)
