8PM ET EDM Oilers (+115) vs FLA Panthers (-135)
As the Stanley Cup Finals heat up, Game 2 between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers promises to be an exhilarating showdown. The Panthers have taken the early lead in the series, winning Game 1 in front of their home crowd. Now, they look to extend their advantage as the Oilers try to steal home ice before heading back home. Let's find some value on this game!
Bobrovsky's Brilliance
Game 1 saw the Panthers skating away with a victory, largely thanks to a spectacular performance by their goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky. His 32-save shutout was nothing short of legendary, frustrating the Oilers’ potent offense at every turn. However, while Bobrovsky's heroics stole the headlines, a deeper dive into the game’s statistics tells a slightly different story and offers up some hope for the Oilers going forward.
Despite the 3-0 final score, Edmonton was far from outplayed in Game 1. The Oilers’ offense was relentless, racking up numerous high-danger scoring chances and dominating possession for long stretches of time. They managed an impressive volume of quality shots, with many narrowly missing the mark or being spectacularly saved by Bobrovsky. It's rare to see such a prolific offense held scoreless, especially when they generated as many opportunities as they did in Game 1, and I believe it's safe to say that if they generate similar looks in Game 2, a few of them will find the back of the net.
Edmonton Can Hang Defensively
The Oilers have been a weak defensive squad over the last couple of years, but not this season. And in Game 1 they showed they can hang with the physicality of the Panthers. On the defensive end, Edmonton allowed a mere 17 shots on goal. This tight defense kept the Panthers’ offense largely in check, despite the final score suggesting otherwise. The Oilers’ ability to limit Florida’s shooting opportunities indicates a strong defensive performance that can be built upon in Game 2. They really only allowed 2 goals for the entire game, with the final one being an empty-netter as time expired.
What do the Numbers Say?
Historical trends add another layer of intrigue to this matchup. Over the last decade, road underdogs who lost Game 1 have a solid track record in Game 2, with a 17-13 straight-up record (57%) in such scenarios. This statistic is even more compelling when you consider the value of betting on underdogs – a 57% win rate for plus-money bets translates to significant long-term profitability. This statistics also excludes the first round where many matchups are very lopsided. In a series like this where you have two teams that matchup pretty closely, it holds even more credence.
The Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers to Win
Considering the historical trends, and what we saw on the ice in Game 1, the best bet for Game 2 is to back the Edmonton Oilers to win. The Oilers’ offensive firepower and defensive prowess suggest they are well-positioned to respond strongly after a frustrating Game 1. While it’s never easy to bet against a team with a hot goaltender like Bobrovsky, the numbers favor an Edmonton bounce-back. Look for the Oilers to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and even the series with a crucial road victory.
PICK: OILERS ML (+115)
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