Tonight's Game 4 between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers in Edmonton is shaping up to be a pivotal matchup. The Stars hold a 2-1 series lead and look to push the Oilers to the brink of elimination. Let's dive in!
Home Away from Home
It's worth it to mention that Dallas has the best road record in the NHL, and also comes into this game boasting a remarkable 6-1 performance away from home this postseason. Their resilience was on full display in Game 3 when they overcame a 2-0 deficit to secure a 5-3 victory. In contrast, the Oilers are just 4-3 at home this postseason. Given their typically high moneylines, backing the Oilers at home has not been a profitable strategy.
These Netminders Are Not the Same
Even though it has been a close series, the goaltenders have quite a gap in between them, with Dallas having a clear advantage. Jake Oettinger has been stellar, stopping 90 of 97 shots for a .928 save percentage against Edmonton’s high-powered offense. In contrast, Stuart Skinner’s performance has been inconsistent. Although Skinner had strong showings earlier in the series, his overall playoff performance has been shaky, with an .885 save percentage through 13 games. Skinner's tendency to be streaky could be a critical factor tonight, especially after a somewhat rough performance in Game 3.
Star-Power is Misleading
Offensively, both teams were evenly matched in the regular season, with Dallas actually averaging more goals per game. While the Oilers boast elite star power with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Dallas compensates with greater offensive depth. The Stars had eight players score at least 20 goals during the regular season, compared to the Oilers’ five. This depth has been evident throughout the series, with multiple contributors stepping up for Dallas. In the Western Conference Final, six different Stars players have scored at least one goal, compared to the Oilers, whose scoring has primarily come from McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Draisaitl.
Factors for Game 4
Dallas's confidence and ability to remain composed under pressure were evident in their comeback win in Game 3. The Stars’ wealth of secondary scoring has also played a crucial role. Jason Robertson’s hat trick in Game 3 was a standout performance, but the contributions from other players highlight Dallas's balanced attack.
Meanwhile, the Oilers need more production from key players like Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evander Kane, who have combined for just a goal and an assist in this series. Edmonton’s defense has been solid, with a playoff xGA/60 ranking fifth at 2.71, indicating that the problem lies more with Skinner’s inconsistency.
Best Bet
With Dallas's impressive road record, offensive depth, and goaltending advantage, they are well-positioned to head back home with a 3-1 series lead.
Pick: Stars Moneyline (+115)
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