Sunday, December 8th, 2024
1PM ET JAX Jaguars vs TEN Titans (-3) | 40
When the Jacksonville Jaguars face the Tennessee Titans, the spotlight will shine brightly on two quarterbacks with slightly different narratives yet similar volatility. Neither team has anything left to play for this season, and I believe we can take advantage of that scenario.
Mac Jones now serves as Jacksonville’s signal-caller after Trevor Lawrence has been shut down for the remainder of the season. His NFL career thus far has been a rollercoaster, and this feels like a make-or-break stretch for the former first-round pick.
Jones has struggled with decision-making, posting the highest turnover-worthy play rates in the NFL in 2023. Some of that was the weapons he was surrounded with as a member of the Patriots, but a lot of it was on him as well. Now in limited action this season, he has continued to hover near the top of the league in that category, often leaving fans and coaches holding their breath.
Unfortunately, the Jaguars’ ground game won’t be much help either. Travis Etienne, despite his dynamic potential, has struggled to generate explosive plays all season. Facing a solid Titans defensive front, Jacksonville will likely abandon the run game and lean heavily on Jones’ arm, particularly in the second half of this game. This kind of pass-heavy script inherently raises the likelihood of more scoring opportunities.
On the other side of the field is Will Levis, who epitomizes the term "high variance." The Titans quarterback has flashed immense potential at times but has also delivered head-scratching performances. After a particularly rough outing last week, Levis will return to the comfort of home, where he’s shown a tendency to bounce back.
That said, even a resurgent Levis remains volatile. His tendency to take risks leads to both spectacular plays and costly errors, often in the same game. In this matchup, against a Jacksonville defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in several key metrics, Levis has the opportunity to put up points—but his mistakes could just as easily give Jones and the Jaguars a short field to work with.
At its core, this game features two quarterbacks who are turnover-prone and aggressive, combined with at least one defense (Jacksonville’s) that has consistently failed to stop opponents. In a high-variance game where neither team has anything to lose, the posted total of 40 is simply too low. These factors create the perfect recipe for a game that exceeds expectations on the scoreboard.
PICK: JAX/TEN OVER 40 (-110)
