6:40PM ET MIN Twins (-120) vs PIT Pirates (+100)
Joe Ryan vs Mitch Keller
After a tough series sweep at the hands of the Yankees, the Minnesota Twins are looking to get back on track as they face the Pittsburgh Pirates. They turn to their ace Joe Ryan against the Buccos' Mitch Keller. Let's find out where the betting value is.
Good Timing for Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan will be pitching for the Twins, and his presence on the mound is a significant advantage. Despite the sweep by the Yankees, it’s worth noting that not many teams are having success against New York right now, as they have won 8 in a row and are simply decimating teams. Ryan got fortunate to avoid that buzzsaw and instead will head to Pittsburgh - this is worth noting since Ryan’s road ERA is nearly two full runs better than his home ERA, highlighting his effectiveness away from home. This road prowess should give the Twins confidence as they look to rebound against a weaker Pirates lineup. While Pittsburgh can score some runs, as we saw in the last 2 games vs the Dodgers, they still aren't the Bronx Bombers.
And it's also good timing for Ryan to take the mound, because although they were swept, the Twins’ bats showed signs of life, scoring 10 runs in the last two games of the Yankees series. This offensive resurgence is crucial as they face Mitch Keller, who has struggled this season. Keller's xERA sits above 4.0, and his metrics, including average exit velocity and barrel rate, are sub-par. Additionally, his strikeout rate is down this year, making him a vulnerable target for the Twins' hitters. Minnesota's bats do a good job of making contact and getting balls in play which will be key in this game. Force Keller to make the right pitch and force the Pirates defense to make plays in the field.
The Pirates Should Cool Off
The Pirates may have just taken 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers, but they face a tougher challenge with Ryan on the mound. Keller’s issues are compounded by Pittsburgh’s bullpen, which is far weaker compared to Minnesota’s. This disparity in bullpen strength could play a significant role late in the game, giving the Twins an edge in maintaining or extending a lead. Another factor working in Minnesota’s favor is Pittsburgh’s poor performance at home this season. The Pirates are below .500 at home, indicating that they struggle to capitalize on their home-field advantage.
The Twins also seem to be a bit undervalued by bettors after being swept by the Yankees. However, it’s important to put that series in perspective. The Yankees are one of the strongest teams in the league, and few clubs have found success against them recently. Minnesota’s overall form has been solid, and the sweep might create a betting opportunity where the Twins are not fully priced for their true capabilities and edges in this matchup.
Best Bet
Look for the Twins to bounce back and secure a much-needed victory against an inferior team. Betting a team after they get swept is a classic buy-low spot, let's see if Minnesota can get us a W tonight!