7:10PM ET COL Rockies (+200) vs NY Mets (-245)
Tanner Gordon vs Sean Manaea
An absurd sweat in yesterday's free play winner as the Blue Jays and Giants combined for 5 total runs in the first inning, and then the bats completely died. a 5-2 game in the 9th inning and a solo home run with 2 outs cashes the over 7.5. Unbelievable... hoping for an easier time in tonight's games. The New York Mets are riding a wave of momentum after sweeping the Washington Nationals and now set their sights on the Colorado Rockies in the opener of a new series. Let's dive in and find some value on these huge lines.
On the Mound
Sean Manaea has been in stellar form recently for the Mets. Over his last three starts, he has allowed just one earned run combined against strong opponents like the Yankees, Nationals, and Pirates. His ERA and xERA are pretty close which is usually a good sign, and he has a lineup behind him that can put up runs in bunches. Manaea’s resurgence is a key factor, especially against a Rockies lineup that struggles on the road against left-handed pitching. The one caveat is walks, if he can maintain his command he will have success tonight.
Tanner Gordon is set to make his second start for the Rockies after a rough debut where he allowed five earned runs to the Kansas City Royals. His average exit velocity in that start was up to 93mph, which is very high. He also wasn't elite in the minors as well - with an ERA of nearly 5 over a good amount of work. Gordon’s inexperience and early struggles make this an advantageous matchup for the Mets, who have been dominant at home against right-handed pitching.
Offensive Matchups
The Rockies have been particularly weak on the road against left-handed pitchers. They rank 25th in OPS, 24th in wRC+, and 23rd in batting average in these situations. Their strikeout rate vs lefties is nearly 30% which is awful,, and they only walk against lefites around 7% of the time. There are a couple of strong bats in the lineup in Charlie Blackmon and Brenton Doyle, but as a whole they should have a tough time in this matchup. This lack of production is likely to continue against Manaea, who has been shutting down lineups effectively.
The Mets, conversely, have been on fire at home against right-handed pitchers. Since June, they rank 4th in OPS and 2nd in wRC+ in such matchups. Everyone on the Mets is producing at the plate, and I would be stunned if Gordon goes deep into this game. Their strikeout rate is sub 20%, they walk nearly 10% of the time and own an overall wRC+ of 133 which is great. This potent offensive production should give them a strong edge in the early innings against Tanner Gordon.
System Support
Adding to the appeal of this bet is a powerful system trend: Home teams starting a new series on a 3+ game winning streak are now 35-14 (69.3%) on the ML and 36-13 (73.5%) on the run line this season. The Mets fit this system perfectly, coming off a sweep of the Nationals and carrying significant momentum into this game.
Best Bet
Considering the favorable pitching matchup, the Mets’ offensive prowess at home, and the strong system trend, the best bet for tonight’s game is Mets First 5 Innings -0.5. While the Rockies bullpen is atrocious and I would be fine with a full game runline bet here as well, I want to exploit Gordon against this NY lineup and take advantage of Colorado's struggles vs lefties.
PICK: METS FIRST 5 -0.5 (-155)