8PM ET CIN Reds (+115) vs MIL Brewers (-135)
Carson Spiers vs Aaron Civale
The Reds head to Milwaukee as underdogs for a NL divisional series with the Brewers. Milwaukee is red hot and come off of a sweep of the Braves in Atlanta, where they put up 34 runs in 3 games. The Reds are basically going nowhere this season as a middle of the road team, but this lines up to be an interesting spot tonight where they may hold value.
On the Mound
Carson Spiers will start for the Reds, bringing a solid 3.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 57.2 innings this season. Spiers has been effective at limiting walks, issuing only 11 free passes, and his ability to keep hitters off-balance with 50 strikeouts has made him a reliable option on the mound. Against a team like the Brewers, who thrive on capitalizing on pitchers' mistakes, Spiers' control and consistency will be crucial. While his surface stats may not be stellar, his pitching profile is solid and there is clear upside to his stuff.
Aaron Civale takes the mound for the Brewers, and his season has been challenging, to say the least. With a 5.14 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP through 112 innings, Civale has struggled with allowing base hits (121) and home runs (22). While his 108 strikeouts suggest he has the potential to regain control, his inconsistency could prove costly against a Reds lineup that has shown it can score runs in bunches. Cincinnati has also been great against right-handed pitching, ranking 5th in OPS over the last 30 days.
Best Bet
Cincinnati has struggled against Milwaukee, going 1-4 SU in their last five matchups. But tonight they get a unique opportunity to pounce on a potential letdown spot for the Brew Crew. Milwaukee returns home after a road sweep of Atlanta, and the offensive output in those games is almost certain to regress. We saw a similar situation in our Best Bet yesterday, where the Diamondbacks returned home off of a sweep only to fall to the Phillies 6-4.
Add all this together and despite their recent struggles against the Brewers, the Reds have the tools to pull off the upset tonight. Carson Spiers' ability to control the game from the mound, coupled with the Reds' knack for manufacturing runs, gives Cincinnati a fighting chance. Aaron Civale's inconsistency and propensity to give up hits and home runs could be the opening the Reds need to capitalize early and put the Brewers on the back foot.