6:35PM ET CLE Guardians (+105) vs BAL Orioles (-125)
Tanner Bibee vs Cade Povich
It's a battle of two AL contenders tonight in Baltimore. The Orioles are coming off a tough series where they were swept by the Houston Astros, while the Guardians are riding high on a five-game winning streak after sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s break down the key factors and identify a best bet for this game.
On the Bump
Tanner Bibee has been solid for the Guardians, showcasing his reliability on the mound. While his stuff isn't going to blow anybody away, he does do a good job of generating swings and misses. Although his K rate is in the top 10% of pitchers, he throws a lot of fastballs and has gotten hit hard on those. He has generated K's and success with his off-speed pitches. He has also gotten tremendous run support as the Guardians offense has been off the charts lately.
However, the key to this matchup might lie in the performance of Cade Povich. Povich, making his fourth career start, has shown significant improvement since his debut. After a shaky first outing, he has allowed just one earned run combined in his last two starts against formidable opponents – the Braves and the Yankees. Povich’s upside and recent form suggest he stop the bleeding tonight for a Baltimore team that has yet to lose 4 games in a row this season. While his command hasn't been great, his underlying expected metrics indicate that his upside hasn't come to fruition yet. He also has a terrific offense behind him as the Orioles have been tremendous all year long, up until this past weekend.
In the Pen
One crucial factor to consider is the state of the Guardians’ bullpen. Cleveland’s relievers, including key closer Emmanuel Clase, have been heavily utilized over the past week, with Clase and other key pitchers working four of the last five days. This heavy workload could leave the bullpen vulnerable, potentially giving the Orioles an edge in the later innings. I personally project the starters being nearly a pickem, with Baltimore having a larger edge from the 6th inning onwards, translating to a full game moneyline of around -142.
The Best Bet
Given the dynamics at play, the best bet for tonight’s game is the Orioles Money Line. Despite the recent sweep at the hands of Houston, Baltimore is poised to bounce back at home. Povich’s recent performances suggest he has the potential to stymie the Guardians’ offense, and the taxed Cleveland bullpen adds to Baltimore’s chances. Additionally, the Orioles’ track record of avoiding extended losing streaks indicates their resilience and ability to recover quickly.
We can also consider a nice system at play in this game: Home favorites off of a road trip after being swept, vs a team that is on a winning streak of 2 or more games, are 56-32 SU (64%) over the last 5 years [per ActionNetwork's BetLabs].
Go Orioles!
PICK: ORIOLES ML (-125)
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