7:10PM ET COL Rockies vs CIN Reds
Ryan Feltner vs Andrew Abbott
The Cincinnati Reds come off of a disappointing weekend sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. Their offense looked lifeless, unable to generate runs regardless of the opposing pitcher. Tonight, they start a new series at home against the Colorado Rockies, who just took 2 of 3 games against Kansas City. Can we find a spot to buy on in this game? Let's take a look!
Which Starter Has the Edge?
If there is any silver lining after being swept by the Tigers over the weekend, it's that the Reds at least did not have to travel to start a new series today, as they will remain home and welcome the Rockies into town. Staying at home without the need for travel should help them reset and refocus, and it just so happens that they get a decent matchup against Colorado's Ryan Feltner.
While Feltner has delivered back-to-back solid starts, throwing 6 innings against the Astros and 5 innings against the Brewers for a total of 3 runs allowed, inconsistency has still been a hallmark of his season. Feltner has struggled to maintain quality over consecutive outings, and expecting him to string together three strong performances seems optimistic given his overall track record this year. Pitching in Coors Field is no doubt a challenge, but his road ERA is also way up at 4.65 on the season, and the Reds are slightly stronger against right-handed pitching. They need every edge they can get after their bats went completely silent over the weekend.
Andrew Abbott will start for the Reds. Abbott, a left-hander, faces a Colorado lineup that has struggled against left-handed pitching. Since June 1st, the Rockies rank 26th in MLB in OPS and 24th in wRC+ against lefties. This matchup favors Abbott, who should be able to keep the Rockies' bats in check, especially since they are a completely different squad away from the friendly confines of Coors Field. The Rockies boast the 5th best OPS in baseball at home (.819) over the last 30 days, but that drops all the way down to 28th on the road (.575) during that same time frame.
Best Bet
Bottom line here is Andrew Abbott should have success in this game. The Rockies’ weak performance against left-handed pitching, combined with the Reds getting Feltner off a couple good starts should be enough for them to take an early lead. I don't trust their bullpen enough though, and think that betting on the first five innings allows us to leverage these advantages while minimizing the risk associated with the bullpen.