10PM ET PHI Phillies (+115) vs LA Dodgers (-130)
Aaron Nola vs Tyler Glasnow
The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers square off tonight in a highly anticipated matchup at Dodger Stadium. The first time these teams faced off in Philly, the Dodgers got swept out of the arena. The Phillies are now coming off a win against Seattle, which snapped their losing streak, but they will need to find their top form once again for this series against a motivated opponent.
On the Mound
Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies. Aside from a few blips, he has been incredibly consistent this season and has pitched really well along-side fellow ace Zack Wheeler. He pitched a gem against the Dodgers in early July, allowing just one earned run in that start on the way to a 5-1 Phillies victory. However, replicating that performance against a potent Dodgers lineup is a tall order, especially considering his slightly weaker road splits. While Nola has been effective, the Dodgers' familiarity with him could prove advantageous for Los Angeles.
Tyler Glasnow will start for the Dodgers, and his presence on the mound presents a new challenge for the Phillies. Philadelphia hasn’t faced Glasnow in many years, 6 to be exact, giving him the element of surprise. Glasnow’s ability to keep hitters off-balance with his mix of pitches could be crucial in limiting the Phillies’ offensive output early on.
At the Plate
The Phillies recently ended their losing streak with a win against Seattle, but they remain in a precarious position. Despite the victory, Philadelphia ranks 28th in OPS and 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Their struggles against righties could be a major factor in tonight’s game, especially considering the Dodgers’ strong performance in this area.
The Dodgers, by contrast, are in the top 10 in both OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers for the season. Over the past 30 days, they rank 13th in these categories, demonstrating consistent offensive production. This offensive edge provides the Dodgers with an angle against Nola - I also think the sweep they suffered in Philadelphia will be on their mind, as those games largely were not close. That was when the Phillies were in peak form, but since then they have been far from it.
Best Bet
While the game could be close in the later innings, the Dodgers are well-positioned to grab an early lead. Given the pitching matchup, offensive dynamics, and the revenge angle that is present in this series, the best bet is Dodgers First 5 Innings -0.5. Betting on the Dodgers to lead after the first five innings allows us to capitalize on their offensive strength and the Phillies' lineup's unfamiliarity with Glasnow.
PICK: DODGERS F5 -0.5 (+105)