4PM ET WAS Nationals (+110) vs MIL Brewers (-125)
Mitchell Parker vs Dallas Keuchel
The Mets and Astros were the lone bright spots for us last night, today I am finding a lot of value on this particular game. A couple of lefties will face off in Milwaukee today after the Nats took the series opener. Can Washington pull off another upset or will the Brewers get back on track?
All About the Matchups
Both the Brewers and Nationals are sending left-handed pitchers to the mound today. Mitchell Parker has been solid this season but draws a tough matchup today. Dallas Keuchel will go for Milwaukee and the vet will likely not go deep into this game, but holds a favorable split against the Nats.
Over the last month, the Milwaukee offense has been significantly better against left-handed pitching compared to the Nationals. The Brewers rank 9th in both OPS and wRC+ against lefties in this timeframe. In stark contrast, the Nationals have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. They rank 26th in OPS and 24th in wRC+ over the last month.
On top of this, one of the key advantages for the Brewers in this matchup is their bullpen. Milwaukee holds a significant edge in relief pitching, which should come into play if the game is close in the later innings. As long as the Brewers’ offense can do its job and provide a lead, which they were unable to do yesterday, their bullpen is well-positioned to secure the win.
The Brewers have also shown resilience after losses this season, boasting a 24-16 record in such games. This ability to bounce back is crucial in maintaining momentum and avoiding extended losing streaks. Given their recent performance against left-handed pitching and their overall resilience, Milwaukee is well-positioned to rebound after any setbacks.
Best Bet
Considering the pitching matchup, offensive dynamics, and bullpen strength, the best bet for tonight’s game is the Brewers Money Line at -125. Milwaukee’s strong performance against left-handed pitchers, combined with the Nationals’ struggles in this area, provides a significant edge in this game.
PICK: BREWERS ML (-125)