As we head into the latter part of the MLB season, we have to get back to finding some best bets each day. Here's why this matchup against the Minnesota Twins looks promising for Brewers backers.
On the Mound
Pablo Lopez, the Twins' starting pitcher, has shown signs of slowing down as of late. His metrics have notably dipped in July, indicating a potential fatigue or adjustment period. This decline is further highlighted by his home statistics: his ERA and WHIP are both higher at home compared to his road performances. This could spell trouble for Lopez as he faces a Brewers lineup that has been productive and should challenge him effectively. Moreover, Lopez has struggled to pitch deep into games recently, failing to go past five innings in his last two starts. This puts additional pressure on the Twins' bullpen, which has several arms that could be due for regression.
On the mound for the Brewers is Freddy Peralta, who has quietly put together a solid season. While his surface stats may not jump off the page, his underlying metrics are impressive. Peralta's off-speed pitches have been particularly effective, a key factor considering the Twins' struggles against such pitches. His ability to keep hitters off balance with his diverse arsenal gives Milwaukee a crucial edge in this matchup.
Best Bet
Given the current form of both pitchers and the offensive capabilities of the Brewers, Milwaukee should be considered the favorites in this game. While the betting line currently has the Brewers at +105, the value here is substantial. The combination of Lopez's declining performance and Peralta's effective pitching style aligns well for a Brewers victory.
BEST BET: BREWERS ML (+105)