6:40PM ET LA Dodgers (-190) vs PIT Pirates (+160)
Walker Buehler vs Bailey Falter
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in unfamiliar territory as they head into the final game of their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, looking to avoid a sweep. Having lost the first two games, LA sends Walker Buehler to the mound against Bailey Falter to try and secure a win before heading out of town. Let's dive in!
This is Rare for The Dodgers
Sure, the Pirates could sweep the Dodgers — it’s baseball, and anything can happen. However, the numbers suggest that this outcome is highly unlikely. Over the past two years, the Dodgers have lost three or more consecutive games only seven times. This season, they have been swept just once (by the Reds), and this has only happened twice dating back to last season. This track record indicates that the Dodgers are well-positioned to bounce back, especially after the way the games in this series have gone: a 1-0 loss in the first game and then giving up 10 runs to Pittsburgh in the second game.
Pitching Matchup Favors LA
The pitching matchup significantly favors the Dodgers. Walker Buehler, in his return from Tommy John surgery, has been solid, if not spectacular. With a 4.02 xERA and decent pitch metrics (97 Stuff+, 101 Location+), Buehler projects as a reliable piece of the rotation. He isn't what he once was but its likely the Dodgers won't need him to be that. The LA bats should wake up in this game and Buehler will just need to be serviceable.
On the other hand, Bailey Falter for the Pirates is a prime fade candidate. His expected ERA (4.72 xERA) and poor pitch metrics (84 Stuff+, 99 Location+) suggest he’s due for a regression. Falter's current ERA of 3.22 is propped up by an unsustainably high strand rate (78.5% vs. a career 72.1%). You can only go so long with leaving runners on base left and right, Falter is due for a game where he gets blown up, and unfortunately for him this lines up to be one of those games. He goes up against a great lineup desperate for a win at the end of a series.. very tough spot.
Another factor favoring the Dodgers is the state of the Pirates’ bullpen. Pittsburgh has relied heavily on their top relievers — David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman, and Colin Holderman — over the last two games. With these key arms potentially unavailable or less effective due to fatigue, the Pirates’ bullpen could struggle to contain the Dodgers' offense. This isn't a deep pen, and once you get by those top options the fall off is dramatic.
Best Bet
Bottom line here is I don't see the Dodgers getting swept. I think they win and win big against Falter as well as the Pirates pen. Buehler will do enough but the bats will win the day in this one.
PICK: DODGERS -1.5 (-115)
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