3:45PM ET TOR Blue Jays (+100) vs SF Giants (-120)
Kevin Gausman vs Jordan Hicks
The Blue Jays got the win yesterday as a road dog against the Giants. This afternoon they will run it back with a solid pitching matchup, or though it seems on the surface. Let's dive into the metrics and take a look at why both of these starters could be in for a rough outing today.
On the Mound
Kevin Gausman will be pitching for the Blue Jays, and despite his reputation as a solid starter, his underlying metrics suggest vulnerability. Gausman ranks in the bottom 15th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), and average exit velocity. Additionally, his expected slugging rate is concerning as it's currently one of the highest in baseball. These metrics indicate that hitters are making hard contact against him, which often leads to higher-scoring games. Gausman has been able to escape potential disasters solid off-speed pitches, and he may have to rely on those heavily today against the Giants.
Jordan Hicks is set to start for the Giants. While Hicks has shown flashes of potential, he is also on the verge of regression. His history against the Toronto lineup, although limited, has been poor. His expected ERA is over a full run higher than his actual, and he relies on generating ground balls; while Toronto does have some bats that don't match up well here, they generally can put the ball in the air which will be key against Hicks.
In the Pen
Both teams have struggled with bullpen reliability this season. They are both bottom 8 in the league in bullpen ERA along with several other pitching metrics as a team. The Giants' bullpen has allowed more earned runs than every team this season except the Rockies, and the Jay's aren't too far behind. Toronto's bullpen has allowed the most homeruns of any team this season as well. This lack of bullpen stability further supports the case for a high-scoring game, as neither team can confidently shut down the opposing offense late in the game.
Best Bet
The combination of Gausman’s vulnerable metrics, Hicks’ regression potential, and the familiarity the Giants’ hitters have with Gausman, coupled with both teams’ inconsistent bullpens, all point towards a high-scoring affair.
PICK: TOR/SF OVER 7.5 (-115)