9:40PM ET LA Dodgers (-135) vs SD Padres (+115)
Tyler Glasnow vs Matt Waldron
The Dodgers managed to salvage their series against the Houston Astros over the weekend, while the Padres came close to sweeping the Baltimore Orioles. Now they start a 2-game set tonight, and we will get to watch an awesome pitching duel between Tyler Glasnow and Matt Waldron. The oddsmakers have LA favored, and rightfully so, but let's see if the spot presents an opportunity to bet this home dog.
On the Mound
Glasnow has been excellent this season, including in his two starts against the Padres. In those appearances combined, he threw 12 innings, allowed 3 hits, 3 earned runs and struck out 13 while walking 6 batters. He has been as consistent as can be for the Dodgers and will look to notch another quality start against a tough opponent.
However, Waldron, a knuckleballer, presents a unique challenge on the other side. Due to the nature of his pitch mix, his metrics might appear skewed a bit. It is historically difficult to quantify these types of pitchers, but hitters tend to take a few times through the lineup before they start seeing that knuckler more clearly. On top of this, he has also been effective in his two starts against the Dodgers, where he has pitched 10.1 innings, allowing just 5 hits, 3 earned runs and striking out 10 while also walking 6 batters. Not too shabby. San Diego has also strengthened their bullpen by adding Jason Adam, bolstering an already formidable relief corps. This addition gives the Padres a reliable option in the late innings, enhancing their chances of securing a win, especially if the game remains close.
At the Plate
The Dodgers will be without Freddie Freeman, a significant loss that creates a considerable gap in their lineup. Facing Waldron, a righty with a knuckleball, adds to their challenge, especially since the Dodgers' lineup is already weakened. Their offense had slumps in their series vs the Astros over the weekend. Maybe the day off helps but tough to come back against an unorthodox pitcher like Waldron.
In contrast, the Padres excel against right-handed pitching. They rank fifth in OPS and fourth in wRC+ against righties this season. While they haven't been able to get to Glasnow as of yet this season, their underlying metrics against him are solid. They have a decent walk rate, and have been able to generate hard contact; should translate into more hits tonight.
Best Bet
Given these factors, the Padres should be closer to even money in this matchup. The absence of Freeman from the Dodgers' lineup, combined with the Padres' proficiency against right-handed pitchers and their bolstered bullpen, makes San Diego an attractive bet at +118.
PICK: PADRES ML (+118)