6:40PM ET CLE Guardians vs DET Tigers
Ben Lively vs Kenta Maeda
We're currently on a 9-1 run on these write-ups, and I hope to provide another winner today in this AL central matchup between the Guardians and Tigers. After cashing on the Tigers +1.5 last night, I will try to zig-zag this one! Let's dive in!
On the Mound
Kenta Maeda takes the mound for the Tigers, and his recent performances raise concerns. Maeda ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in several key metrics, including expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), velocity, barrel rate, and strikeout rate. His latest outing was disastrous, allowing 9 earned runs to the Twins, and his previous start against the Guardians this year was equally troubling, where he surrendered 7 earned runs in just 2 innings. Maeda’s lack of effectiveness is a significant disadvantage against a Cleveland lineup looking for redemption after being shutout in last night's game.
Ben Lively will start for the Guardians, providing a more stable presence on the mound. Lively has been consistent, not allowing more than 4 earned runs in any start this season. His reliability gives the Guardians a solid foundation to build on, especially against a Tigers lineup that has been inconsistent despite their recent four-game winning streak. Detroit is also at a major disadvantage in this particular matchup as they rank 27th in OPS and 28th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.
At the Plate
The Tigers have relied heavily on their pitching during their recent 4-game winning streak, but sustaining this success against a team like the Guardians is challenging. Cleveland’s lineup is unlikely to be held down for a second consecutive game, particularly against a pitcher with Maeda’s struggles. The Guardians have shown resilience throughout the season, boasting a 22-11 record following a loss and a 4-1 record after a shutout loss. This indicates their ability to bounce back quickly, making them a tough opponent for Detroit’s pitching staff.
Cleveland’s offense is built to exploit Maeda’s weaknesses, particularly his inability to prevent hard contact and manage the strike zone effectively. The Guardians’ balanced approach and ability to generate runs through various means make them well-suited to capitalize on Maeda’s deficiencies. Meanwhile as mentioned above, I project more struggles at the dish for Detroit against Lively and the Cleveland bullpen behind him as well.
Best Bet
Given the pitching matchup and offensive dynamics, the best bet for tonight’s game is Guardians -1 (-112). Backing good teams after a shutout loss is generally a great strategy, and the pitching matchup also checks out here as well. If you don't know how to create a -1 line in baseball, here is how you split your bet:
A 1unit wager would be 0.6units on the CLE ML and 0.4units on the CLE -1.5. Use this runline calculator to help in the future: zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/