6:40PM ET CHI Cubs (+155) vs BAL Orioles (-185)
Shota Imanaga vs Corbin Burnes
PUSHED on our free play yesterday as the Guardians blew a 6-0 lead, and not a good night for me overall at 1-3-1. Let's get back on track with a play in this series between the Cubs and Orioles. Weird Game 1 with the Cubs exploding offensively and blowing out the home team, can the O's bounce back?
On the Mound
Corbin Burnes will take the mound for the Orioles, and he has been nothing short of spectacular this season. A Cy Young candidate, Burnes boasts a stellar home record of 5-1 with an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.1. His dominance at home gives Baltimore a considerable advantage in the early innings, where he can set the tone and potentially stifle the Cubs' offense.
Shota Imanaga is set to pitch for the Cubs. While Imanaga has had a solid season overall, his performance has dipped recently, posting an ERA above 5.00 in June. This recent slowdown suggests that the Orioles could find success against him early, especially after a loss where they will be looking to bounce back aggressively. Baltimore had a scorching hot month of June at the plate, and should rebound after a poor showing last night following a day off.
At the Plate
The Cubs’ offense has been inconsistent this season, exhibiting a feast-or-famine nature. After a high-scoring game last night, it's reasonable to anticipate a regression, especially against a pitcher of Burnes' caliber. The Cubs have struggled to maintain offensive consistency, which could be problematic against Burnes, who excels at limiting runs and managing the game.
On the flip side, the Orioles have shown resilience after losses. They have a 22-11 record following a defeat this season, and when the loss is by 2 or more runs, they are 14-8. This indicates their ability to rebound quickly and effectively, making them a solid bet to start strong in the early innings of tonight's game. They hit lefties well and Imanaga hasn't faced them yet this season.
Best Bet
I'm comfortable taking the Orioles First 5 Innings -0.5 as my bet for this game. With Corbin Burnes on the mound, the Orioles have an edge in the early innings; as good as Imanaga has been, he catches this Baltimore offense in a bounce back spot and I expect them to generate offense against him. Baltimore’s strong record following a loss and the Cubs’ inconsistency at the plate further reinforce this play.
PICK: ORIOLES FIRST 5 -0.5 (-115)