8:05PM ET SD Padres (+120) vs TEX Rangers (-142)
Adam Mazur vs Jon Gray
The once red hot San Diego Padres have now dropped their last two games, as they head into the 2nd game of a 3-game set against the defending champions. Will the Rangers grab their 3rd straight win on the path to turning their season around, or will the Padres get back on track? Let's find out!
On the Mound
The righty Adam Mazur will take the mound for the Padres. While his overall metrics are decent, he has shown a tendency to perform better on the road, with a lower expected ERA in those spots and some improved underlying metrics.. This bodes well for San Diego as they look to capitalize on Mazur’s ability to keep them in games away from home. While the Rangers bats have gone off for 8 and 7 runs respectively in their last 2 games, I don't project this offensive output to be sustainable.
On the other side, Jon Gray will pitch for the Rangers. Gray’s recent form has been concerning, giving up 17 runs in his last three starts, excluding a shutout against Kansas City during their offensive slump. His last outing saw him surrender 8 runs to the Orioles, highlighting his vulnerability. Although it’s unlikely he’ll repeat that disastrous performance, his recent struggles suggest he could be in for a tough night against a potent Padres lineup that absolutely destroys right-handed pitching.
At the Plate
As mentioned above, the Padres’ strength against right-handed pitching is a significant factor in this matchup. San Diego boasts a .275 batting average and ranks third in the league in OPS against righties. This offensive prowess should give them the upper hand against Gray, who has been inconsistent and prone to giving up big innings. Couple this with the offense coming off of a game in which they scored no runs, could spell trouble for the Rangers if San Diego bounces back as teams normally do in these spots.
While Texas has shown flashes of the offense that went on to win it all last season, their inconsistency and recent struggles against better pitching could tilt the game in San Diego’s favor. Mazur has been good enough to win on the road but is still looking for that first road win as a rookie., and the Rangers will be in their weaker split today as they fare better vs lefties.
Best Bet
I'm expecting the Padres’ bats to wake back up tonight after a couple of duds against Boston and Texas. Their season-long dominance against right-handed pitching, combined with Gray’s recent struggles provides a strong foundation for San Diego to secure a victory. The line offers some really good value as well, as my projection is much closer to even money in this one.