The July 4th festivities are now out of the way, and we are left with a massive MLB slate for Friday - two games in particular jumped out at me. Let's take a look at two teams that I believe can pull off upsets tonight.
7:20 PM ET: PHI Phillies (+124) vs ATL Braves (-145)
Aaron Nola vs Max Fried
The Braves have had a good season overall and will no doubt be in the thick of the NL East race and the Wild Card race as we round out the baseball season. However, there is also no denying that they have struggled at the plate lately, dropping two out of three games to the San Francisco Giants in their previous series. Their bats were largely quiet during that series, a trend that could continue against Aaron Nola and the Phillies’ bullpen. The Braves are currently ranked 15th in OPS and 17th in batting average against right-handed pitchers, indicating they are middle-of-the-road in this aspect.
Max Fried will throw tonight for Atlanta looking to get a much needed win against a divisional opponent. Despite losing arguably their top 3 bats in the lineup, Philadelphia hasn't really missed a beat offensively. The Phillies are strong against left-handed pitching, ranking 7th in OPS and 9th in batting average. This positions them well against Atlanta’s lefty starter. While Fried is undoubtedly a top-tier pitcher, Philadelphia’s lineup has a decent track record against him, even minus Harper, Schwarber and Realmuto, and possesses the offensive capability to challenge his dominance.
Best Bet: PHILLIES ML (+124)
8:10 PM ET: HOU Astros (+135) vs MIN Twins (-155)
Shawn Dubin vs Pablo Lopez
The Astros have had a slower start to the season but have shown signs of getting back to their best. When they play to their potential, Houston is undoubtedly one of the better teams in the league. Despite their ups and downs, they remain a formidable opponent capable of competing with any team, and will likely compete once again for a championship.
They kick off their weekend series in Minnesota, where the Twins’ offense will look to stay hot after a big game yesterday. The Twinkies exploded for 12 runs in a win against Detroit,, but such performances are often followed by a regression. Betting on Minnesota to replicate that kind of offensive outburst is risky, making this a potential spot to fade what could have been an outlier game yesterday.
While Pablo Lopez is a solid pitcher for the Twins, I'm skeptical that Minnesota should be this big of a favorite. The Astros have good history against him and this is a lineup that loves a challenge. They make pitchers work and will look to get Lopez out of this game as quickly as possible.
Shawn Dubin might be the reason we get a bit of extra value on Houston tonight, as he will likely just be the opener for a bullpen game. But the Astros bullpen is solid, and the way they will win this game is at the dish. Expect Minnesota's offense to sputter a bit tonight and the Astros to cash as a road dog.