The NBA Finals are upon us, and Game 1 between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics is set to tip off in Boston. As sportsbettors, it’s crucial to dive into some key trends and historical data that might help guide our bets for tonight's game.
The Data is Clear
One of the most significant betting trends for the NBA Finals is how home favorites perform in Game 1. Over the last 20 years, home favorites in Game 1 have an astonishing record of 17-3 against the spread (ATS), an 85% success rate. This trend is very much alive as the Celtics, decent favorites for this game, aim to continue this impressive streak. Although this is a very one-sided stat, it's actually not an outlier. This can go back decades as the road teams typically take some time to adjust to the atmosphere in the Finals, especially when they are the less experienced squad. The last time to buck this trend was actually... these same Celtics who won game 1 on the road in Golden State a few years back.
Matchups Are Key
The story of this series undoubtedly revolves around the superstars: Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving for the Mavericks, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for the Celtics. While the Mavs have shown their prowess against teams like the Thunder and the Wolves, who spread the floor and play a team-oriented brand of basketball, they haven’t faced a team like the Celtics in these playoffs. Boston boasts two true superstars who excel in isolation play, posing a significant challenge for Dallas, especially considering their lack of strong one-on-one defenders.
The Celtics can also throw multiple strong defenders at Doncic and Irving, while also being able to switch with essentially every player on the floor except for Al Horford. The return of Kristaps Porzingis is a massive boost on both sides of the floor, but it remains to be seen how healthy he actually is. Dallas is elite offensively but so is Boston, and you can argue that they have more matchup advantages than the Mavs do.
Second Time's The Charm?
Boston’s experience in the Finals could also play a pivotal role. The Celtics have been here before and have even secured a Game 1 victory on the road against Golden State a couple of years ago. They know what the atmosphere feels like, they know the stakes and they have gotten gut-punched at the highest level of the sport. This experience, combined with their home-court advantage, gives them a significant edge in the series opener in my opinion. I do believe Dallas will be very competitive in this series, but there is an adjustment period.
Best Bet for Game 1
Taking all these factors into account, my best bet for Game 1 is Celtics -6.5. The historical trends, the matchup dynamics, and Boston's experience all point towards a strong performance from the Celtics in the opening game. And by the way - don’t get hung up on the spread: the team that wins in the NBA Finals is 91-12 ATS (88%). These lines often scare bettors off into buying points or playing favorites on the expensive moneyline, but most of the time this doesn't help. Trust the data and go with the Celtics to cover.
PICK: CELTICS -6.5 (-110)
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