As we gear up for an exciting Sunday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Atlanta Falcons, there's a lot to unpack from recent performances. The Chiefs are coming off a narrow win, while the Falcons pulled off an upset on Monday night. Can the Falcons keep the momentum going, or will the Champs flex on them in primetime?
Recency Bias is a hell of a Drug
Until the final minutes of Monday night’s game, it looked like the Falcons were on the verge of starting the season 0-2. It took a single great passing drive from Kirk Cousins to pull off the win against the Eagles, but for most of that game—and the previous one—the Falcons looked like a team that was struggling. That one drive seems to have made the entire football world forget just how poorly the Falcons had played for nearly two full games before that moment.
As a result of Atlanta’s upset victory and the Chiefs' struggles to close out their game against the Bengals, the betting line for this matchup moved off of the opener. It opened at Chiefs -4.5 and dropped to -3 a few days later, but that feels like an overreaction. The truth is, Atlanta still has a lot to prove, and they’ll face a completely different test against the Chiefs compared to the Eagles and Steelers.
Defense Will be The Difference
One of the key differences in this game will be the Chiefs' defense, led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo’s defenses are known for bringing relentless pressure, and that’s something Cousins will have to contend with. While Cousins looked better against a rather vanilla Eagles defensive scheme that didn’t bring much heat, facing the Chiefs is an entirely different challenge.
Chris Jones, the Chiefs' star defensive tackle, will be in Cousins’ face all night. Atlanta’s offense struggled against the Steelers in Week 1, a game where Cousins was pressured constantly and faltered. Expect a similar scenario here, as the Chiefs will look to replicate Pittsburgh’s success by keeping Cousins uncomfortable in the pocket.
The Numbers are Conclusive
One of the most convincing arguments for backing Kansas City is Mahomes’ track record in these types of games. As a small road favorite, Mahomes has been nearly unbeatable. He’s 12-2-1 ATS (85.7%) as a small favorite on the road and an incredible 24-8-1 ATS (75%) when favored by a field goal or less, or as an underdog. Mahomes thrives in these situations, and it’s rare to get him at such a favorable number.
Furthermore, the idea that Cousins is going to pull off back-to-back prime-time upset victories seems unlikely. Despite Monday night’s win, there are too many factors working against him in this game. Kansas City holds significant advantages across the board. They have the better quarterback, the better coaching staff, the better defense, and overall more speed and talent at the skill positions.
While Atlanta is coming off an emotional win on a short week, Kansas City has had extra time to prepare. The Chiefs also excel indoors, where their speed and skill players can thrive without worrying about weather conditions.
Best Bet
The Falcons may be riding high off their Monday night upset, but don’t let that cloud your judgment. The Chiefs are the more talented, more prepared team, and Mahomes is simply too good in these situations. Atlanta's main path to success here will have to be the rushing attack, as that is the main vulnerability of the Kansas City defense. However, I don't think they can exploit it for a full 60 minutes, and if the Chiefs jump out to a lead as they often do, Atlanta will be forced to play catchup which doesn't bode well for them..
Bottom line here is we are at the point where if you give me Patrick Mahomes in any scenario at a price of -3 or better: I'm taking it.
PICK: CHIEFS -3 (-110)