Am I the only one who does not like the idea of TWO games on Monday Night Football? I want to sit down at the end of a great football weekend and just focus on ONE game! But anyways, the 0-2 Jags are already in full on desperation mode as they head to Buffalo for a huge game. Let's see where the betting value is in this game!
Buy Low, Sell High
This is a classic buy low spot on a team that’s been undervalued by the public and the oddsmakers. Despite being winless, Jacksonville is far from the struggling team their record may suggest. They match up well against the Bills, as evidenced by their 25-20 victory over Buffalo last season in London. In that game, Jacksonville's defense contained Josh Allen and the Bills' potent offense, and they could perhaps replicate that against a team that is mostly similar aside from a few losses on offense.
Buffalo covered as a dog in Week 2, but failed to cover a touchdown favorite in Week 1 vs the Cardinals. The Bills have a very clear focus on running the football this season with James Cook - it started to show last season but it's even stronger now. And as a result I suspect they will not be as good at covering these larger spreads, since run-focused teams usually excel as underdogs.
Aside from this there are other reasons to believe this is a sell-high spot for Buffalo. Teams coming off 17-point wins as underdogs are just 35% ATS in their next game since 2010. And when those big wins happen early in the season, the following game tends to be a letdown. Those teams are just 12-40-1 ATS (23%) in the first five weeks of the season after such a blowout victory.
The Bills caught a few lucky breaks in that win, including Tua Tagovailoa’s injury. Additionally, Arizona had no issues moving the ball on Buffalo in their matchup, which suggests the Bills’ defense may not be as impenetrable as it appeared against Miami.
The Data
The trends are heavily in favor of the Jaguars in this spot. Winless teams in the first six weeks of the season are 102-69 ATS (60%), a trend that aligns with Jacksonville’s 0-2 record. But even more compelling, winless road teams coming off a home loss are 80-43 ATS (65%) in that same timeframe.
Further, teams that are 0-2 and playing a team with at least one win are 53-32-2 ATS (62%) since 2010. When those winless teams were favored in their previous game, as the Jaguars were, the trend improves to 73% ATS.
Best Bet
Even though the line has moved towards Jacksonville, anything above +4 is still worth grabbing. The Jaguars are in a prime position to cover the spread, and given the favorable trends, there’s also value in sprinkling the moneyline for those looking to take a shot on the outright upset.
PICK: JAGUARS +5.5 (-110)