Sunday Night Football presents a rematch of last year’s playoff clash between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions. Both teams have high hopes for this season and will look to contend in the NFC - who will start off on the right foot? Let's find out!
Revisiting Last Year’s Matchup
The last time these two teams met, the Rams narrowly covered the spread in a wild playoff game that featured a series of improbable plays. Fast forward to this season, and the point spread is curiously set at exactly the same number, despite several key changes that suggest a different outcome this time around.
Rams on the Decline?
The Rams come into this game with several glaring issues that could spell trouble. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, now a year older, faces a formidable Detroit defensive front without the protection of an elite offensive line. The Rams are starting a couple of rookies on the line, which could be problematic against a ferocious Lions pass rush. Moreover, the departure of Aaron Donald, a cornerstone of their defense, further weakens their ability to control the line of scrimmage.
The offensive woes don’t stop there. Cooper Kupp, while still a reliable target, is also a year older and while he will likely still be the top target for Stafford, the Lions have certainly bolstered their secondary. Puka Nacua, a promising young receiver, enters the game banged up, limiting his effectiveness. Combined with these aging and injured weapons, the Rams' offense looks vulnerable, particularly against a Lions defense that is young, fast and hungry.
The Lions Are Serious Contenders
On the other side of the field, the Lions have made key additions that should position them well to dominate this game, particularly in the trenches. Detroit added DJ Reader, one of the league’s elite run-stoppers, to their defensive front. If he is healthy enough tot go in this game, he is a massive factor. This addition, along with a revamped secondary and several strategic draft picks, has plugged holes and strengthened the Lions’ defensive unit considerably, which was their weak spot last season.
The Lions' defense is now well-equipped to handle whatever the Rams throw at them, especially in the run game. With Reeder anchoring the defensive line, expect Detroit to stifle the Rams' rushing attack, forcing them into predictable passing situations where the Lions' pass rush can tee off on Stafford.
Rams Overvalued and Lions Undervalued
There’s a strong case to be made that the Rams are overvalued heading into this game. Their 10-win season in 2023 had fluky numbers behind it, with several close victories and fortunate breaks masking underlying issues. In contrast, the Lions have steadily improved, addressing key areas of weakness through smart acquisitions and player development.
The betting line at -3.5 in favor of Detroit seems to underestimate the Lions' potential and overestimate the Rams' chances of replicating last season's success. Not to mention that Jared Goff has been an elite QB when playing indoors, going 23-9 ATS (71.8%) as a Lion indoors.
Best Bet
Considering all these factors, the best bet for this game is to take the Lions at -3.5. Detroit’s ability to dominate in the trenches, combined with the Rams' aging roster, injury concerns, and weakened defense, gives the Lions a clear edge.
How can this line be the same as last season's playoff game when the Lions are better and the Rams are worse? I cannot get this below -5 with my projections.
PICK: LIONS -3.5 (-110)
Good to -5