Sunday, December 15th, 2024
Packers (-2.5) vs Seahawks | 46.5
The Green Bay Packers host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, and while the Seahawks have been riding a four-game win streak, this game presents the perfect opportunity to sell high on them. Green Bay enters as a 3-point favorite, and I’m backing the Packers to cover in what should be a pivotal NFC matchup.
Why It’s Time to Fade the Seahawks
The Seahawks have been impressive coming out of their bye week, rattling off four straight wins, but the quality of competition during this stretch leaves a lot to be desired. Let’s break it down:
Last-Second Drive vs. San Francisco: Seattle needed a miraculous drive to edge out the 49ers.
Two Wins vs. Arizona: One of those victories came without the Seahawks scoring an offensive touchdown.
A Win vs. the Jets: While impressive on paper, it was against a horrible team and Seattle at one point trailed by 2 TDs.
That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents. While wins are wins, this game marks a clear step up in competition for the Seahawks, especially defensively. The Packers have been rolling offensively, and their balance on the ground and through the air should present significant challenges for Seattle.
This matchup boils down to Matt LaFleur’s offense vs. Mike Macdonald's defense, and I love how Green Bay matches up. The Packers have found their rhythm running the football, and their success on the ground should open up opportunities for play-action shots downfield.
Quarterback Jordan Love has also taken significant strides in recent weeks, showing improved accuracy and decision-making. Against a Seattle defense that has benefited from facing subpar offenses, Green Bay’s ability to create explosive plays through play-action could be the deciding factor. And let's not forget the amazing run they went on to end last season as well - this is a team that thrives at this time of year.
The Seahawks’ offense remains unreliable, particularly at Lumen Field. Geno Smith’s splits home vs. away tell the story:
Away: 5-1 ATS, 6 TD/2 INT, 97 passer rating.
Home: 2-5 ATS, 8 TD/10 INT, 85 passer rating.
Smith has been a different quarterback on the road, showing better efficiency and ball security. But on Sunday Night Football at home, with the Packers’ pass rush and secondary applying pressure, expect Seattle’s offense to have more pressure to make plays.
Several trends further reinforce the Packers as the right side in this matchup:
Geno Smith in Primetime as an Underdog: 2-10 SU. Smith has consistently struggled to deliver as a dog under the bright lights of primetime.
LaFleur on Extended Rest: 16-9 SU. Green Bay has performed well with additional preparation, and LaFleur’s offensive creativity should shine against a Seahawks defense that has yet to be truly tested during its win streak.
LaFleur vs. Teams Above .500: 28-17 ATS. Green Bay rises to the occasion when facing quality opponents, and this game is no exception.
Best Bet
This game sets up perfectly for Green Bay to make a statement on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks are overvalued after their recent win streak against questionable competition, while the Packers are surging offensively and have clear advantages on both sides of the ball. You can find a juiced 2.5 in the market but I opted to lay 3 at even money instead.
THE PICK: PACKERS -3 (+100)