Thursday, December 12, 2024
8PM ET LA Rams vs SF 49ers (-2.5) | 49
The San Francisco 49ers host the Los Angeles Rams in a pivotal NFC West matchup with major playoff implications. Can the Rams stay hot after two consecutive wins or does this game set up as revenge spot for the 49ers? Let's dive in.
Despite the Rams’ recent head-to-head success, the numbers tell a different story. The 49ers hold a slight edge in EPA per play (0.072 vs. 0.051) and have been more efficient on defense, allowing an EPA per play of 0.014 compared to the Rams’ 0.078. San Francisco is statistically better on both sides of the ball, and their dominant performance last week against Chicago signals they’re gearing up for a late-season push.
In that game, the 49ers resembled the juggernaut we expected, racking up 452 total yards while limiting the Bears to just 162 yards in a 25-point blowout. Reports of a players-only meeting before the game suggest that San Francisco’s focus and urgency have reached new levels. This is a team playing with renewed desperation, and their win over Chicago could be the turning point in their season, which has been full of injuries and struggles to this point.
The Rams are coming off a high-stakes, high-emotion win over the Bills, where their offense had to play nearly flawlessly. While they got the job done, their defense looked vulnerable, allowing Buffalo to stay competitive. Playing on the road, where their offense has struggled to replicate home performances, this matchup against a surging 49ers defense is a much tougher ask.
San Francisco has historically thrived in situations like this under Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are 9-5 straight-up when facing a team they lost to as a favorite earlier in the season. Meanwhile, Sean McVay’s Rams are just 11-16 SU as road underdogs of seven points or fewer, a trend that underscores their struggles in tight games away from home.
The revenge angle also plays heavily here. In their Week 3 meeting, the Rams pulled off a 27-24 victory thanks to a late rally, but the 49ers dominated for much of the game, building a two-touchdown lead and outgaining Los Angeles significantly. This time, San Francisco has the home-field advantage and plenty of motivation to right that wrong.
The Rams rank among the NFL’s worst in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.162), and that spells trouble against Brock Purdy. Purdy has struggled against elite defenses, but he excels at exploiting weaker secondaries like Los Angeles’.
Key Trends
Underdogs off a 40+ point game are 7-18 ATS (28%) in their last 25 games. The Rams fit this trend after their big win against Buffalo, signaling a potential letdown spot.
Purdy has lost just five games at home in his career, making Levi’s Stadium one of the toughest places to play.
The 49ers have shown they can bounce back in key spots, as evidenced by their strong record in revenge games under Shanahan.
Best Bet
This game has all the makings of a 49ers statement win. I believe we have finally reached the point where the Niners are undervalued in the market. The look-ahead line for this game was north of a TD, and while it shouldn't be that high anymore, it certainly should not be below the key number of 3. Add in the Rams’ likely letdown after an emotional win and their struggles away from home, and I think we cash a ticket in this game.
PICK: 49ERS -2.5 (-110)
