Sweet 16 Best Bet for Arizona vs Duke

Arizona and Duke meet in the Sweet 16 tonight and we should be in for a good one. Here is my official play on the game!

Yes, the Wildcats are a very good basketball team. But in reality, Arizona was down 17-4 early to the Ducks — a team that isn’t exactly stacked with blue-chip talent. That kind of sluggish start won’t fly against Duke. To make matters worse, Oregon missed 10 free throws in that game. Arizona was certainly a bit fortunate.

Now, that same team has to take on a Duke squad that is second all-time in KenPom’s adjusted net rating, behind only 1999 Duke — this team feels a lot to me like the 2023/2024 Uconn National Championship teams, which steamrolled through everyone for the most part.

Duke hasn’t just looked good — they’ve looked untouchable. The Blue Devils are clicking on both ends of the floor, boasting a top-5 offense and defense in all advanced metrics. Their spacing, pace control, and shooting have been exceptional, and they defend without fouling.

The eye test? It’s not even close.

While Arizona needed comebacks and free-throw luck, Duke has controlled every game they've played. The Blue Devils' floor is high and their ceiling is championship-level. They’re not a team that lets opponents back in once they have a lead — and they’re often leading from the jump.

Best Bet

The public might be backing Arizona as a trendy underdog, but this number feels short. Based on advanced metrics, matchup edges, and overall form, Duke should be favored by more than double digits.

The Pick: Duke -9.5

We have a couple of 2unit plays going as well!

Get all plays for the remainder of the tournament here for $29: Madness Pass