Top 3 NBA Picks for Thursday 4-3

by Phil White - April 3rd, 2025

We’re targeting three props tonight — two overs backed by usage and matchup advantages, and one under in a tough spot. Let’s break down our favorite value plays on the board.

🔺 Quentin Grimes Over 22.5 Points

Grimes continues to be the engine of the Sixers' offense, averaging 28 points over his last 10 games and carrying a massive scoring load. He’s proving that high usage doesn’t always mean lower efficiency — he’s maintained solid shooting splits even as defenses key in on him.

He’s also playing for a big offseason contract, and he’s delivered whenever this line has been in the low 20s. Until the books make a real adjustment, we’ll keep hammering.

🔺 Dorian Finney-Smith Over 13.5 PRA

DFS is thriving in his new hybrid role off the Lakers bench, averaging 12 points, 5 boards, and an assist per game over his last five. With LA leaning on more wing-heavy lineups, Finney-Smith has become a matchup nightmare — especially on the glass when opponents try to go small.

The Warriors could opt for a quicker lineup here, which should only help Finney-Smith crash the boards and pile up enough stats across the board to clear this PRA.

🔻 AJ Johnson Under 20.5 PRA

Johnson has flashed some exciting upside since the Kuzma trade, but he's still prone to cold spells — and tonight’s matchup is far from ideal. Orlando’s defense is elite, especially in terms of pace and length on the perimeter, and they make life difficult for scoring-first wings.

AJ needs a high-scoring night to sniff this number, and against the Magic’s top-five defense, that feels like a big ask. We’ll fade the rookie here.

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