Top 3 NBA Picks for Tuesday 3-25

by Phil White - March 25th, 2025

We’ve got an exciting NBA slate lined up, and after digging into the matchups, I’ve identified several player props that present great value. Let’s break them down.

🔻 Landry Shamet Under 6.5 Points

Landry Shamet appears to be playing his way out of the rotation. In his last two games, he totaled just 3 points, 2 rebounds, and 1 assist combined — despite playing over 35 minutes across those outings. His poor efficiency (38% FG, 25% 3PT over his last 10 games) and the emergence of rookie Tyler Kolek have sharply cut into his usage.

Even in a blowout win recently, Shamet posted a team-worst plus-minus (-8), highlighting just how replaceable he's been in the lineup. With his minutes and shot volume trending downward, this number feels a couple of buckets too high.

🔻 Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 23.5 Points

JJJ is wildly talented, but he's been streaky in his role as the primary scorer without Ja Morant. Tonight, he draws a brutal matchup with Jazz big man Walker Kessler, one of the league’s best rim protectors. With Desmond Bane back and healthy, expect the Grizzlies' offense to flow more through the perimeter — and that typically pushes Jackson into a lower-usage role.

The Jazz give up over 50 points per game to opposing guards, which lines up nicely for Bane to take the scoring reins. Look for JJJ to slide into more of a secondary scoring option here, making the under a sharp play.

🔺 Kai Jones Over 8.5 Points

This is a classic opportunity + motivation play. Kai Jones, the former 1st-rounder, is finally getting real minutes due to Dallas' depleted frontcourt. And he’s making the most of it, averaging 16 points and 9 rebounds on 27 minutes per game over his last few appearances.

Jones is also playing for his NBA future — and that level of urgency, paired with a lack of competition for minutes, makes this a great spot to back him. With the Mavs still lacking depth at the 4 and 5, Jones should get a strong workload again tonight.

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