Top 3 NBA Picks for Wednesday 3-19

by Phil White - March 19th, 2025

We’ve got an exciting NBA slate lined up, and after digging into the matchups, I’ve identified several player props that present great value. Let’s break them down.

📌 DeMar DeRozan Over 32.5 PRA

DeMar DeRozan has been stuffing the stat sheet since De’Aaron Fox was traded to the Spurs. With the increased workload, DeRozan has stepped up in every aspect of the game, averaging 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists since the Fox trade. That puts him at 35 PRA per game, which clears this line comfortably.

What makes this spot even more appealing is the matchup. The Cavaliers play at a slower pace, but their defensive efficiency has taken a hit recently, and DeRozan thrives in these mid-range-heavy half-court matchups. Plus, this is a pace-up spot for DeRozan and the Kings, which means more possessions and more opportunities for counting stats. Expect DeRozan to take control of the offense and hit this number with ease.

📌 Josh Giddey Over 33.5 PRA

Josh Giddey has been on an absolute tear since the Zach LaVine trade, averaging 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists — that's 37 PRA per game over that stretch. The concern with Giddey earlier in the season was consistency, but that has been erased with his increased usage and confidence as a primary playmaker.

Billy Donovan has made it clear: if Giddey suits up, he's getting a full workload. The Thunder are leaning on Giddey to initiate the offense, and he’s delivering across the board. Facing a defense that struggles to contain versatile point guards, this is a great spot for Giddey to continue his all-around dominance.

📌 Quentin Grimes Over 23.5 Points

Quentin Grimes has shown elite scoring upside since joining the 76ers, and the opportunities just keep coming. He’s averaging 26 points per game over his last 10 games with a 30% usage rate — elite numbers for a guy with this type of scoring talent.

The only concern here is the potential for a blowout since the 76ers are facing the Thunder. But the Sixers are so injury-riddled that they simply can’t afford to pull Grimes off the floor, even if the game gets out of hand. With Grimes locked into a high-volume role and his shot falling, this line feels a couple of points too low.

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