When it comes to betting on the NFL, you can find many betting trends and systems that will be talked about constantly throughout the year. But it's really important to be able to spot which ones are fluff and which ones actually have merit; think causation vs correlation, right? If someone cannot explain to you the logic behind a betting system, it's likely that the data means nothing. In this article, that's precisely what I'll do as we dive into several key systems that I love for Week 1.
System 1: Short Road Underdogs
Over the last 10 NFL Seasons, this system is 149-146 Straight Up on the ML for +22.25 units. The full criteria is as follows:
Team must be on the road
Team must be the underdog
Spread must be between a pk and +2.5
BET THE DOG ON THE ML
The Logic Behind the Trend
The success of the Short Road Underdog system can be attributed to two primary factors: the psychological impact of the betting line being below the key number of 3 and the declining value of home-field advantage in the NFL.
1. The Appeal of the Favorite
When oddsmakers set the home team as a slight favorite, just under the key number of 3, it creates a psychological effect on the betting public. Remember this is not a 'trap' as man would suggest - it's not like the books are huddling up in the back room and trying to trick you. It's simply human psychology that many casual bettors are drawn to the home team, thinking that a small point spread is easier to cover.
2. The Declining Value of Home-Field Advantage
Another reason this system works so well is that home-field advantage in the NFL isn't what it used to be. Over the years, the value of home-field advantage has diminished for various reasons—improved travel conditions, better communication technology, and more sophisticated preparation by road teams. The days when home teams automatically held a significant edge are over.
Currently in Week 1 there are two games that fit the system as of right now:
GB Packers (+114) vs PHI Eagles
DAL Cowboys (+114) vs CLE Browns
System 2: Double Revenge
Over the last nearly 20 years, this system is 66-43 ATS (61%). The full criteria is as follows:
Must be a divisional game
Team must have lost both games to that opponent in previous season
The essence of this system lies in the idea of revenge and familiarity. Divisional opponents face each other twice a year, creating a unique dynamic where teams become intimately familiar with each other's strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. When a team loses both games to a divisional rival in the previous season, they enter the new season with a heightened sense of motivation to avoid a repeat. The revenge factor is strong here, as the team that was swept has an entire offseason to prepare and review film, analyzing where they went wrong and strategizing improvements.
For NFL Week 1, this system fits 1 team:
CAR Panthers +4 (-110) vs NO Saints
System 3: Road Dogs Off a Bad Season
Over the last nearly 20 years, this system is 369-261-16 ATS (59%) and an even more impressive 97-55 ATS (64%) in Week 1. The criteria is as follows:
Team is on the road
Team is an underdog
Line is between pk and +6
Total is 50 or less
Team won 6 or less games last season
This system is predicated on the notion of buying low on teams that the public has written off. Teams that won six games or fewer in the previous season often come into the new year with low expectations. As a result, the betting lines for these teams' opponents can be inflated, providing value to bettors willing to back them as road underdogs. These teams are perceived to be weak due to their previous season's performance, but the start of a new season offers a clean slate. Early-season games often feature close contests as teams shake off the rust and refine their playbooks.
In week 1 you have four teams active:
ARI Cardinals +6 (-110) vs BUF Bills
TEN Titans +4.5 (-110) vs CHI Bears
WAS Commanders +3.5 (-110) vs TB Buccaneers
CAR Panthers +4 (-110) vs NO Saints
System 4: Primetime Unders
Primetime Unders have been on a tear, going 117-73-2 (61.6%) over the last 5 seasons. The criteria is as follows:
Game is in primetime
Total is between 43 and 57
The Primetime Unders system is based on the unique atmosphere of nationally televised games. Primetime matchups come with heightened scrutiny and pressure, often leading to more conservative game plans and slower paces of play. Coaches and players are aware that the entire nation is watching, and this added pressure can lead to fewer risks being taken on both sides of the ball. The result is often a low-scoring affair, with neither team wanting to show too much.
There are typically 3 primetime games each week, but there are actually 4 of them for Week 1:
BAL/KC under
GB/PHI under
LAR/DET under
NYJ/SF under
System 5: 9.5 Unders
This is one of my favorites although it doesn't show up as often as the others do. Last year this went 23-19 (59%), the year before that it went 22-14 (61%) and in the decade prior it went 249-177 (59%). The criteria is as follows:
The spread is 9.5 or higher
THAT'S IT!
The 9.5 Unders system revolves around games where there is a significant spread, often indicating a mismatch. In these scenarios, the favorite is expected to win comfortably, which often leads to a game script where the leading team takes a conservative approach in the latter stages to avoid injuries and manage the clock. The underdog, meanwhile, is typically a team with a struggling offense, which may play into the hands of a lower total. Large underdogs often rely on their defense to stay competitive, knowing their offense isn't likely to keep pace in a shootout.
Currently, there are no games for Week 1, but keep this one in your back pocket for the remainder of the season!