This weekend’s UFC card offers some intriguing matchups, and for those looking to find value in the underdog market, two fighters stand out in particular. You know the drill - let's dive in:
Marcin Tybura (+130) vs Serghei Spivac (-150)
Marcin Tybura enters this fight as a slight underdog against Serghei Spivac, but this is a rematch that Tybura has already won convincingly once before. In their previous encounter, Tybura showcased his superior ground control, securing multiple takedowns and dominating Spivac on the mat. He pressured Spivac throughout the fight, controlling the action with his grappling and ground-and-pound, leading to a unanimous decision victory.
Tybura’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place is crucial. Spivac, while having moments of success in striking exchanges, struggled to defend Tybura’s relentless takedown attempts. Tybura's consistent pressure kept Spivac on the back foot, unable to establish any significant offense. This fight could very well follow a similar pattern, with Tybura utilizing his wrestling and grappling to neutralize Spivac’s striking.
Spivac will likely have some moments on the feet as he did in the first fight, but given Tybura’s past success against him and his proven ability to execute a game plan centered around his strengths, he’s likely to be the more active and effective fighter. Lastly, underdogs in rematches after winning the first bout cash at a rate of nearly 60%, making the value side pretty clear in this one.
PICK: MARCIN TYBURA (+130)
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Nikolay Veretennikov (+330) vs Danny Barlow (-425)
Nikolay Veretennikov faces a tough challenge in Danny Barlow. In his previous fight against Michael Morales, Veretennikov had a strong showing, particularly in the early stages. He started the fight with effective low kicks, solid combinations, and even a flashy spinning backfist that landed cleanly. He won the first round on the judges' scorecards, demonstrating that he can compete at a high level.
While Morales eventually took control of the fight with his grappling and ground-and-pound, Veretennikov showed flashes of brilliance, especially in the striking department. Veretennikov’s experience and technical striking could pose problems for Barlow, who has a reach advantage but lacks the same level of competition experience. Nikolay's ability to also defend takedowns and his striking acumen make him a live underdog in this matchup.
The key for Veretennikov will be to maintain the momentum he had in the early rounds of his previous fight and avoid getting caught in prolonged grappling exchanges. If he can do that, his chances of pulling off an upset increase significantly.
Barlow is a big favorite for good reason, as he packs a lot of power and is 8-0 in his career with 6 finishes - but in the gambling world we aren't trying to predict who wins, we are trying to find value. Obviously at the massive price of +330, this would be a sprinkle on the longshot upset.