Friday, December 6th, 2024
8PM ET UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos (-4) | 57.5
The Mountain West Conference Championship is set for a thrilling rematch as the UNLV Rebels face the Boise State Broncos on the iconic blue turf in Boise. While Boise State comes in as the favorite, this matchup feels much closer than the odds suggest. Here’s why the Rebels are primed for revenge.
These teams met earlier this season in a game that Boise State narrowly won, 29-24, on the road in Las Vegas. The final score was closer than the game script indicated, as UNLV led for much of the contest and had chances to pull off the upset.
The key takeaway from that matchup was how well UNLV’s defense handled Boise’s star running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty, who has been one of the most dominant running backs in college football this year, was held to just 3.8 yards per carry—his least efficient game of the season. To put that in perspective, Jeanty has averaged over 4.8 yards per carry in every other game this year.
Despite Boise converting all four of its fourth-down attempts and UNLV giving up a short field on a bad interception, the Rebels were in the game until the very end. The Rebels’ offense put up an impressive 6.3 yards per play, and quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams had a standout performance, rushing for over 100 yards and a touchdown. The ingredients for success against Boise were already in place, and this time, UNLV will look to finish the job.
UNLV’s defense is built to handle a run-heavy attack like Boise State’s. The Rebels have allowed just 3.2 rushing yards per carry this season and have surrendered only one rushing touchdown since Halloween. In the first meeting, linebacker Jackson Woodard led a defensive effort that stacked the box and limited Jeanty’s impact, a strategy that should be even more effective with adjustments from head coach Barry Odom.
Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen has been efficient this season, throwing 21 touchdowns to just three interceptions, but the UNLV defense thrives on forcing turnovers. The Rebels rank fifth in the country in turnover margin and have recorded 17 interceptions in 12 games. Madsen, who has 12 turnover-worthy plays this season, will need to be cautious against a ball-hawking secondary that’s itching for a game-changing play.
While Boise State has a strong reputation and the home-field advantage, their recent play has been less convincing.
The Broncos struggled to beat Nevada by a touchdown at home, needed a late rally to overcome San Jose State, and barely escaped with a win at Wyoming. Their defense gave up 6.3 yards per play to UNLV in the first meeting and has looked shaky at times down the stretch.
This is a team that peaked earlier in the season and appears to be slightly on the downswing, opening the door for an upset.
The Rebels, on the other hand, are surging. Their only two losses this season came against Boise and a ranked Syracuse team in overtime. They’ve shown resilience and physicality, especially in the trenches, and their offense has been consistent with Williams and running back Jai’Den Thomas, both of whom average over 5.9 yards per carry.
This game also carries extra motivation for UNLV. They have double revenge on their minds after losing to Boise in last year’s Mountain West Championship and again earlier this season. Expect Odom and his staff to make significant adjustments from the first meeting to give the Rebels an edge.
Best Bet
The number here is telling. Despite the venue flipping to Boise, the spread hasn’t budged much from the first meeting, staying in the 3.5-to-4 range. That suggests oddsmakers respect UNLV’s ability to compete with Boise and believe this game will be close.
With a strong defensive game plan, offensive firepower, and motivation for revenge, UNLV +4 is the play. Sprinkle a little on the moneyline if you’re feeling bold, as the Rebels have a real shot at pulling off the outright upset and bringing the Mountain West Championship to Las Vegas.
THE PICK: UNLV Rebels +4 (-110)
