LOCK & CASHVerified · updated live
+3.0%
Average closing line value
The single hardest number to fake — and the clearest proof of a real edge.
65.8%Beat the close
1,180Graded picks
+2%Books limit past
What is CLV?
A better price than the market’s closing line.
Beat it over thousands of picks and you’ve proven a real edge, win or lose. It’s just math.
How sharp is that
We’re in the zone books shut down.
Pros live at +2% to +4% CLV. Sportsbooks start limiting sharp accounts right around +2%. Here’s where we land.
Our picks+3.0%
0%
Break-even
+2%
Books limit
Recreational
Negative CLV. Beats the close under half the time.
Break-even
~0%. Exactly in line with the market.
Sharp / pro
+2% to +5%. Where books start restricting you.
Beat the close
Our last 10 picks, by CLV.
Browns @ JetsOct 11
+1.0 ptsVikings @ SaintsOct 11
+1.0 ptsColts @ SteelersOct 11
+1.5 ptsUSC @ Penn StOct 10
+3.9%Georgia @ AlabamaOct 10
+5.7%Texas @ OklahomaOct 10
+1.4%Texas @ OklahomaOct 10
+0.5 ptsTexas A&M @ MissouriOct 10
-1.0 ptsArizona @ West VirginiaOct 10
+0.5 ptsIndiana @ NebraskaOct 10
+1.0 ptsClosing-line value on our last 10 graded picks.
CLV over time
Above the line, week after week.
Weekly avg CLVBreak-even
Where the edge is sharpest
Average CLV by market.
Player PropsSharpest
+4.3%275 picks
Total
+3.6%76 picks
Spread
+3.0%272 picks
Moneyline
+2.1%557 picks
By sport
Beat the close, everywhere.
MLB
69%
615 graded picks
NBA
62%
209 graded picks
NCAAB
59%
184 graded picks
NCAAF
59%
82 graded picks
NFL
76%
51 graded picks
WNBA
68%
34 graded picks
NHL
80%
5 graded picks