The Minnesota Timberwolves are set to face the Dallas Mavericks tonight in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. Dallas stole home-court advantage in Game 1 - can Minnesota even the series up tonight? Let's find out.
Mavericks' Impressive Game 1 Performance
The Mavericks played an outstanding game in the series opener, taking advantage of a fatigued Timberwolves team to secure a crucial road win. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving were phenomenal, showing why they are one of the most dangerous backcourts in the league. They got decent contributions from their role players and it was another well-coached game by Jason Kidd. However, it’s important to consider the context of their performance and why they were successful .
Timberwolves' Fatigue Factor
The Timberwolves were coming off an emotionally and physically draining Game 7 victory on the road in Denver. A classic sign of fatigue is when teams settle for outside jump shots which is precisely what the Wolves did. Their lack of aggression led to an abnormal number of 3 point attempts, and while they did make 18 of them it hurt them late in the game. This shouldn't come as a surprise as letdown spots are common after grueling battles, and teams often struggle to maintain their intensity in the immediate aftermath. This scenario was likely a key factor in Minnesota's lackluster showing.
Bounce-Back Game 2s
Historically, home teams that lose Game 1 have a strong track record of bouncing back in Game 2. Over the past five years, these teams are 15-5 (75%) against the spread in Game 2. This trend reflects the urgency and adjustments that home teams make to avoid falling into a deeper series hole. I am particularly looking at Anthony Edwards tonight to have a much stronger game, as he admitted after Game 1 that the team was flat. He was visibly gassed in the 4th quarter and was a non-factor for most of the game. Expect him to be much more prominent in Game 2.
Defensive Adjustments
Minnesota’s coaching staff will have had time to make the necessary defensive adjustments on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and so far in these playoffs the Wolves have proven they are up to the task. Expect the Timberwolves to employ different defensive schemes to disrupt Dallas' offensive flow. By tightening up their defense and focusing on limiting the Mavericks' backcourt, Minnesota can significantly reduce Dallas' scoring opportunities the same way they did against the Suns big 3 and the defending champs.
Best Bet
The Mavericks did their job and took advantage of a tired Wolves team off of an emotional Game 7 win. The stage is now set for a strong Timberwolves response in Game 2. With the historical trends favoring home teams after losing Game 1, and the expected defensive adjustments, Minnesota is well-positioned to bounce back; while the Mavs will be satisfied with splitting these games and look to regroup back at home for Game 3.
Pick: Timberwolves -5.5
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