Honestly, the Home Run Derby is probably the most exciting All-Star tradition in all of sports. The NBA ASB is a joke, the Pro-Bowl is atrocious and the NHL... well yeah.
Tonight we get to watch some awesome hitters in action, and there is plenty of betting value on the board. Let's dive in and come out with a best bet.
Key Info
Each league is represented equally in the field, with four participants from the American League (AL) and four from the National League (NL). The first round is a bit different this year, as all players will hit as many homers as they can and the top 4 will simply advance to the semi-finals.
Let's take a look at the field and some of their key metrics. I like to look at average exit velocity and barrel rate as my top two indicators:
PLAYER | AVG EXIT VELO | BARREL RATE |
ALONSO | 88.2 MPH | 11.4% |
OZUNA | 93.4 MPH | 18.1% |
WITT JR | 92.6 MPH | 15.0% |
HENDERSON | 92.7 MPH | 12.1% |
GARCIA | 91.5 MPH | 13.8% |
HERNANDEZ | 91.3 MPH | 14.8% |
RAMIREZ | 89.6 MPH | 8.9% |
BOHM | 90.4 MPH | 8.4% |
Ozuna wins both categories but I believe the market has him pegged correctly. He is only behind Alonso, a man who has won this contest twice already. I also worry a bit about his swing which is a tad bit longer than some of the other top competitors. This form leads to a slightly reduced bat speed on average, which has proven to be important for derby winners.
PLAYER | AVG BAT SPEED |
HENDERSON | 75.8 MPH |
ALONSO | 75.1 MPH |
WITT JR | 74.6 MPH |
OZUNA | 74.2 MPH |
HERNANDEZ | 73.3 MPH |
BOHM | 72.5 MPH |
GARCIA | 72.2 MPH |
RAMIREZ | 70.3 MPH (L) 74.1 MPH (R) |
Bat speed can certainly impact stamina as the longer a swing is, the more effort it can require. Alonso has been so successful in this event because he has a great mix of raw power and a quick compact swing, even though his power metrics are down a bit this season.
What's the Bottom Line?
The last 10 Home Run Derby winners have ALL had at least a 91 MPH average exit velocity and at least an 11% barrel rate.
Based on this and other factors, here we go:
Best bet: Winner to come out of the AL (-115)
I believe Pete Alonso is a bit over-valued, having won this twice before. Marcell Ozuna's swing and stamina both worry me a bit, and I project Teoscar Hernandez and Alec Bohm to have a very small shot at winning, to the point where I feel comfortable taking this bet. By taking the AL we get the hitters who have the longest homer (Witt Jr), highest max EV (Witt Jr), fastest swing (Henderson) and we even get the hometown player in the event that Adolis Garcia gets hot in his own park.
Sprinkle Bobby Witt Jr. (+500) (betMGM)
Sprinkle Gunnar Henderson (+475) (FanDuel)
I personally did not bet this, but if you are looking for a real longshot, Hernandez fits the mold well enough here. He has a very solid barrel rate and decent swing metrics. There is not as big of a gap per the data between him and Adolis Garcia, as the market would suggest.