The Philadelphia Eagles enter the 2024 NFL season with a renewed sense of purpose and a roster that has been meticulously built to contend for another Super Bowl. While last season ended in disappointment, the Eagles remain a contender and will look to put together a more successful run this season. Let's take a look at how they aim to secure a trip back to the Super Bowl and how we can find value on it.
A Tale of Two Seasons: 2022 vs. 2023
To understand why the Eagles are poised to dominate the NFC East in 2024, we need to take a closer look at the stark differences between their performances in 2022 and 2023.
In both seasons, the Eagles stormed out of the gates with a 10-1 record through Week 12. However, the 2022 Eagles felt like a dominant force, consistently putting games away early and coasting to victory in the second half. They were a well-oiled machine, leading the NFL with a 7.8-point average halftime margin. The 2023 Eagles, on the other hand, felt different. Despite having a similar record, they often found themselves trailing at halftime, with an average deficit of 1.0 points through the same stretch.
The result? The Eagles frequently found themselves playing from behind, which ultimately caught up with them in the latter part of the season. A brutal stretch of games, where they played three straight opponents with more rest, led to a late-season collapse. The Eagles finished the year 11-6, a far cry from their dominant 2022 campaign. And of course, all of this resulted in a Super Bowl trip in 2022 vs a first round exit in 2023.
Schedule Impact in 2024
One of the most significant factors contributing to the Eagles' struggles in 2023 was their brutal schedule. They played four of their final six games at a rest disadvantage, and it showed. In those games, the Eagles went 0-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and just 3-3 straight up (SU). When facing teams with more rest, the Eagles were consistently outmatched, particularly in late-season blowouts against the 49ers and Cowboys.
However, the 2024 schedule looks much more favorable. The Eagles are set to face the NFL’s easiest schedule of run defenses from Week 7 onward, which aligns perfectly with the acquisition of Saquon Barkley. Barkley, who struggled behind a poor offensive line in New York, now finds himself running behind one of the best units in the league. The Eagles’ offensive line, despite the retirement of Jason Kelce, remains elite, with Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, and Landon Dickerson anchoring a unit that finished top three in ESPN’s run block win rate.
Additionally, the Eagles will enjoy a significant rest advantage in 2024. They will play only one game with a rest disadvantage this year, compared to five such games in 2023. This improved schedule positioning will be a crucial factor in the Eagles’ ability to maintain their health and performance down the stretch.
Offseason Improvements
The Eagles' front office, led by Howie Roseman, made several key offseason moves to address the team’s weaknesses from last year. On the defensive side of the ball, Philadelphia overhauled its secondary, drafting cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean with their top two picks. These young talents will be integrated into a unit that still features veteran leadership but desperately needed an infusion of youth and athleticism.
The Eagles also bolstered their pass rush by signing Bryce Huff, who is coming off a 10-sack season with the Jets. With Haason Reddick moving on, Huff’s presence will be vital in maintaining pressure on opposing quarterbacks, something the Eagles struggled with at times in 2023.
Offensively, the addition of Saquon Barkley gives the Eagles a dynamic playmaker in the backfield, capable of taking advantage of the NFL’s easiest schedule of run defenses. Paired with the elite receiving duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and the steady presence of Dallas Goedert at tight end, the Eagles’ offense is loaded with talent.
Another key change is the hiring of Kellen Moore as the new offensive coordinator. Moore, known for his innovative play-calling, should bring back the aggressive, fast-paced offense that made the Eagles so successful in 2022. Under Moore, expect the Eagles to return to their explosive ways, particularly in the first half of games where they were so dominant two seasons ago.
Best Bet
Ultimately, the Eagles’ success will hinge on the performance of Jalen Hurts. Hurts, who was an MVP candidate for much of the 2023 season, saw his production dip late in the year as he dealt with injuries and the overall offensive struggles. However, with a full offseason to recover and adapt to Moore’s system, Hurts is poised for a bounce-back campaign.
The NFC East remains a 2-team race between Philly and Dallas. But the Cowboys have had a significantly worse off-season and will likely take a step back after over-performing last season with 12 wins (hence their win total at 9.5 this season). With a favorable schedule, improved rest situation, key offseason acquisitions, and a retooled coaching staff, Philadelphia has addressed the issues that plagued them in 2023.
While the bottom of the division has improved with the Giants and Commanders being slightly better, the Eagles still possess the most balanced and talented roster in the NFC East. If Jalen Hurts can recapture his 2022 form and the offense returns to its explosive ways, Philadelphia should be the team to beat.