8:30PM ET BOS Celtics (+115) vs DAL Mavericks (-2.5)
As the NBA Finals shift to Dallas, the Mavericks find themselves in a challenging position, down 0-2 to the Boston Celtics. Game 3 is a pivotal moment for the Mavericks, offering them a chance to claw their way back into the series. For bettors, this game is a classic scenario where deep analysis and understanding of the game’s dynamics can uncover significant betting value.
Dallas is Fine on Defense
The first two games of the series have seen the Mavericks struggle, particularly on the offensive end. The Celtics’ defense has been a major factor, stifling Dallas’ scoring opportunities and making life difficult for their star players. Despite these struggles, the Mavericks’ defense has shown promise, managing to keep the games relatively competitive. They have forced the others for Boston to beat them, by focusing on shutting down Tatum. It has mostly worked as he is shooting 30% in the series, but the supporting cast for the C's has been excellent.
While Doncic has been doing his part, the team needs more from its supporting cast, particularly from Kyrie Irving. Irving’s performance has been underwhelming, and his resurgence is crucial for the Mavericks to have a fighting chance. Historically, home games often serve as a catalyst for players to regain their form, and Dallas will be hoping that their return home can provide the spark needed for Irving and the rest of the team to step up.
Defensive Adjustments
A lot of noise has been made about Luka Doncic’s defensive liabilities, but it's essential to consider the broader context. He has been carrying a massive offensive load, similar to what we saw with Anthony Edwards in the previous round. And if we look at what happened to Ant in that series, he was totally exhausted on one side of the floor. For him it was offensively, for Doncic it's defensively, but the effect is the same. I believe that an improved offensive game from the Dallas supporting cast, will give them a boost defensively. Expecting Luka to excel on both ends of the floor is unrealistic and unnecessary. If the Mavericks can find more offensive balance, Doncic can focus on being an average defender, which would significantly improve the team’s overall performance.
The Quintessential Buy-Low Spot
Historical trends provide a glimmer of hope for the Mavericks. Teams down 0-2 in the NBA Finals have a strong track record when returning home for Game 3. Over the last 30 games, home teams in this situation have gone 21-9 straight up (70%). This trend underscores the significant home court advantage and the urgency with which teams play to avoid an insurmountable 0-3 deficit. It's already bleak for Dallas as teams up 2-0 win the series 86% of the time, but if they go down 3-0 it is effectively over.
Best Bet
While betting on the Mavericks might seem risky given their struggles so far, the value lies in understanding the context and anticipating a rebound performance. After pushing on the +7 line in Game 2, the Mavs still haven't lost back to back games ATS in these playoffs. Dallas is too talented to go down without a fight, and Game 3 is their chance to make a statement and keep their championship hopes alive.
PICK: MAVERICKS ML (-135)
Don't forget to take advantage of code 'MONTH50', which will get you 50% off of your first month of picks here: https://bit.ly/40vqXyB