9:45PM ET ATL Braves (-110) vs SF Giants (-110)
Chris Sale vs Blake Snell
Tonight’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants features a highly anticipated pitcher’s duel with Chris Sale and Blake Snell taking the mound. Both pitchers have had stellar seasons, with Snell recently making headlines by throwing a no-hitter. While both guys are stingy to opposing offenses, I see a contrarian angle with value in this game.
Chris Sale has long been one of the most dominant left-handers in baseball, and is proving that once again this season. While he’s still capable of putting together quality starts, Sale has struggled to go deep into games recently, failing to pitch beyond the fifth inning in four of his last five outings. This decline in stamina could spell trouble against a Giants lineup that has been red-hot against left-handed pitching. San Francisco has quietly become one of the most dangerous lineups against left-handed pitchers. Over the last 30 days, they rank 5th in OPS, 5th in slugging, and 4th in wRC+ against lefties. Sale’s inability to go deep into games combined with the Giants' offensive prowess against left-handers could lead to an early exit for the veteran, opening the door for San Francisco to put up some runs against other arms.
Blake Snell, on the other hand, is in the midst of an incredible run, including a recent no-hitter. Snell has been nearly untouchable, making it tempting to assume he’ll keep the Braves' offense in check. However, Atlanta’s recent success against lefties should give bettors pause before automatically backing the under. Over the last two weeks, the Braves are ranked 8th in OPS, 9th in slugging, and 8th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. While their struggles agaisnt righties have been well documented, this offense is still more than capable of putting runs on the board against even the toughest southpaws.
Best Bet
Given the pitching matchup, it’s understandable that the total is set at a low 6.5 runs. However, with both offenses performing well against lefties and Sale’s recent struggles to go deep into games, there’s value in betting the over. This game could easily see more offense than expected, especially if either pitcher shows signs of vulnerability.
PICK: OVER 6.5 (-115)
