9PM ET PIT Pirates (-105) vs LA Dodgers (-115)
Paul Skenes vs River Ryan
Tonight’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers is set to be a thrilling pitcher’s duel, featuring two young arms with electric stuff. While the focus will likely be on the pitching battle, I see one side as having the offensive edge. Let's roll.
On the Mound
Paul Skenes has quickly made a name for himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. His ability to strike out hitters with expert command of the zone and induce weak contact makes him a nightmare for opposing lineups. Skenes has been nearly untouchable, and with the Dodgers' recent struggles at the plate, he appears to be in a prime position to continue his dominance.
The Dodgers, despite their star power, have been in a bit of a slump offensively. Over the last two weeks, they have posted the third-worst contact rate in baseball and have struck out in 27.6% of their plate appearances. While this could play right into Skenes' hands, the return of Freddie Freeman and Miguel Rojas to the lineup has injected some life into the offense. They will need it tonight against Skenes.
On the other side, River Ryan has quietly been a revelation for the Dodgers in his first three big-league outings, posting an impressive 1.72 ERA. His xERA is a higher but this is largely due to lack of volume; once he gets more starts under his belt I expect it to even out. He also gets a decent matchup against a Pittsburgh squad that has struggled with strikeouts as well, ranking as the third-worst team in baseball over the last two weeks in terms of avoiding them and sixth-worst throughout the season. Their inability to display patience at the plate, coupled with a middling 8.2% walk rate, makes them a favorable matchup for Ryan. The Pirates have relied heavily on base hits and lack significant power, which should allow Ryan to keep them in check with his ground-ball-inducing style. If he can keep the ball out of the air, he has a good chance to post a quality start.
At the Plate
The offensive angle is very simple for me. This will be the Dodgers' second look at Paul Skenes, and while Skenes was effective in their first meeting, limiting the Dodgers to three runs over five innings, it’s worth noting that facing a pitcher for the second time often yields better results for hitters. The familiarity could play a role in the Dodgers' favor, potentially allowing them to adjust and capitalize on Skenes' few mistakes. While Skenes got the win in that game, it's important to note that the Pirates offense carried the load, putting up 10 runs. The Pirates, on the other hand, have shown little ability to adjust offensively and have been plagued by a lack of patience and power. This plays right into River Ryan's strengths, as his ability to limit damage and induce weak contact should help him navigate the Pirates' lineup effectively.
Best Bet
While both pitchers have the potential to shine, the Dodgers’ slight edge comes from their lineup's ability to learn from previous encounters with Skenes and Ryan's suitability to exploit Pittsburgh's offensive weaknesses. LA should find more success at the plate as they get more of their bats back, and the Pirates simply have not been a good road team.
PICK: DODGERS ML (-115)
