12:35PM ET NY Yankees (+115) vs PHI Phillies (-135)
Nestor Cortes vs Cristopher Sanchez
Today's matchup between the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies sets the stage for a pivotal game as the Phillies aim to avoid a series sweep. After two tough losses, the Phillies find themselves with their backs against the wall. Let's see what they need to do to salvage this series.
One Side has a Clear Edge
Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the Yankees. Recently, there have been rumors about the Yankees shopping Cortes around before the trade deadline, indicating some uncertainty about his role moving forward. Might be nothing, but an interesting angle nonetheless. Cortes has struggled over the past two months, posting a 5.23 ERA and a 4.30 xFIP. His pitch modeling metrics have also declined, and his ERA has increased from 3.50 through May to 4.33 between June and July, highlighting his recent struggles, especially on the road.
Cristopher Sanchez, on the other hand, presents a bit of a stronger option for the Phillies. With a 3.57 xERA, 3.24 xFIP, and a Pitching+ score of 104, Sanchez is the superior pitcher in this matchup. He also boasts a 58.6% groundball rate, which should be less affected by the weather conditions—85 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing out to right field. Sanchez's ability to keep the ball on the ground will be crucial in mitigating the impact of the hitter-friendly conditions.
When it comes to offensive performance, the Phillies have a clear edge against left-handed pitching. Philadelphia ranks fourth in the league with a 120 wRC+ against lefties, compared to the Yankees, who rank 13th with a 106 wRC+. This advantage is significant, especially considering that the Phillies are facing a lefty in Cortes, whose recent form has been shaky.
Both teams also had to dig deep into their bullpens in Tuesday's extra innings thriller, with each team deploying six relievers. This extensive use of the bullpen could play a role in tonight's game, especially if the starters struggle early. However, given Sanchez’s better form and the Phillies' stronger splits against lefties, Philadelphia appears better equipped to handle the bullpen fatigue.
Best Bet
Given these factors, the Phillies are positioned well to avoid the sweep and secure a win today. Cortes’s recent struggles, both overall and on the road, combined with Sanchez’s solid performance and the Phillies' offensive advantage against left-handed pitching, make this a clear value bet on Philly.
PICK: PHILLIES ML (-135)