The Atlanta Falcons (0-1) and Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) will finish off Week 2 on Monday Night Football. Kirk Cousins started his Falcons career with a home loss against the Steelers while the Eagles beat the Packers in Week 1 in Brazil. Here's how I am betting this matchup!
Cousins in Primetime
Much of the conversation leading up to Monday Night Football will focus on Kirk Cousins' poor track record on Monday nights, where he holds a 3-10 ATS record. However, it’s important to note that the bulk of those losses came when Cousins was with the Washington Redskins, a team that struggled in many facets of the game and wasn’t well-equipped to compete against top-tier teams. This version of the Falcons, however, is a completely different story. This is not a bad team, despite how they looked in Week 1, and as a result I think this narrative is over-used and mostly fluff.
Can Atlanta Contain the Rush?
One of the key factors working in favor of the Falcons is their defense, specifically against the run. Last season, Atlanta ranked as the second-best rushing defense in the NFL per PFF, a major strength they are projected to maintain this year. Philly, known for their run-heavy approach—especially with A.J. Brown out of the lineup—will find themselves facing a stout front that can limit their rushing attack. The Eagles will likely attempt to control the game on the ground, but Atlanta's ability to shut down the run gives them a clear advantage in keeping this game closer than the spread indicates.
On the other side Atlanta needs to establish the run against Philly. That's easier said than done, but if they can get Bijan Robinson into a groove, it will open up play-action opportunities for Cousins which is not only where he shines, but it also where you can attack this Eagles defense. They are weakest in the secondary but in order to exploit this the ground game needs to be effective.
The Data Checks Out
The Falcons may have disappointed in Week 1, but this is exactly why now is the perfect time to buy low on this team. Atlanta came into the season with high expectations, and despite their slow start, this is still a team with solid talent on both sides of the ball. Week 1 performance often skews public perception, but good teams are rarely as bad as they look after just one game. In fact, 0-1 Teams ATS vs a 1-0 Team ATS are 54-35-2 ATS (60.7%).
Another key angle here is the Eagles' recent travel. After their Week 1 game in Brazil, they’ve returned home to face Atlanta. Historically, teams coming back from international games, particularly when they're heavy favorites, have struggled against the spread. Teams in this position have covered at just 42-43% ATS, making this an important trend to consider. The toll of international travel, combined with the pressure of being favorites, puts Philly in a difficult spot for this game.
Best Bet
Atlanta’s defense will be key in keeping this game competitive, and while Philadelphia may come out with a win, it’s unlikely to be by a large margin. The combination of historical trends, defensive matchups, and an overreaction to Week 1 results makes the Falcons a strong underdog pick for Monday Night Football.
PICK: FALCONS +5.5 (-110)