WE. ARE. BACK!
Thursday Night Football delivers a heavyweight clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs, a rematch of last season's AFC Championship. The Chiefs emerged victorious in that playoff battle, edging out the Ravens in a tight defensive game. As we gear up for this prime-time showdown, the Ravens are looking for redemption, and I believe we have a great angle to play on - let's go!
Will History Repeat Itself?
In their previous encounter, the Ravens’ defense stood tall, holding the high-powered Chiefs offense to just 17 points. This was no small feat, considering Kansas City’s explosive potential with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. However, Baltimore’s offense failed to capitalize on their defense's stout performance. The game plan, orchestrated by offensive coordinator Todd Monken, leaned heavily on passing plays, particularly over the middle – an area where the Chiefs excel defensively. With just six designed run plays, the Ravens played right into Kansas City’s strengths, ultimately stalling their own offensive momentum.
The offseason has provided Baltimore ample time to reassess and refine their strategy, which was downright baffling and ended up being the nail in the coffin. With the acquisition of Derrick Henry, one of the league’s most dominant running backs, expect the Ravens to adopt a more consistent, run-heavy approach. Henry’s presence should allow the Ravens to control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field, a key to success against a team like the Chiefs.
Revenge and Motivation
This game carries an added layer of motivation for the Ravens. Losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, as discussed above, has undoubtedly left a sour taste in their mouths, and they'll be eager to prove they can overcome the reigning Super Bowl champions.
While Baltimore has had quite a bit of turnover on defense, the existing gameplan to limit the Chiefs is already there and worked last season. The offense should be aided by now having a healthy Mark Andrews, along with year 2 of Zay Flowers in his second year, and of course, Derrick Henry. With these reinforcements, the Ravens are better equipped to challenge Kansas City’s defense and dictate the pace of the game.
Numbers Don’t Lie
While Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have made a habit of late-game heroics, there’s a strong case to be made for the Ravens, especially in the first half. Historically, Lamar Jackson has been a strong performer early in games. In his career, Jackson boasts an impressive 50-25 record against the spread (ATS) in the first half, hitting at a remarkable rate of nearly 67%. This trend isn’t exclusive to Jackson, either. Head coach John Harbaugh has been equally effective in this regard, with a 55-26 ATS record in the first half over the last five years, a span that includes games even when Jackson was sidelined. Additionally, in his career Harbaugh is 12-4 ATS in week 1 - he brings his team prepared for battle.
Last season, Harbaugh and Jackson combined for a stellar 14-3 ATS record in the first half, underscoring their ability to come out strong and execute game plans effectively from the get-go. When you combine this historical data with the revenge angle and the added motivation of facing the Super Bowl champions, the Ravens emerge as a compelling bet in the first half.
Best Bet
With Lamar Jackson’s strong first-half performance record, John Harbaugh’s tactical acumen, and the possibility of the Chiefs starting slower due to a Super Bowl hangover, the Ravens at +120 on the first half money line offers significant value. This bet allows you to tap into the motivation, preparation, and urgency that Baltimore is likely to bring to this Thursday night showdown. The Chiefs are great and it is never fun to fade them, but the numbers tell the story of this one and I like isolating the first half so that I don't need to be sweating a close game on the opposite side of Mahomes!
PICK: RAVENS 1H ML (+120)