Week 0 Presents a Betting Opportunity for Week 1
This season, 14 FBS teams began their journey last weekend in week 0. Of those, five will be back on the field for Week 1, squaring off against opponents who are just getting their season underway.
This scenario raises an intriguing question: Is it more beneficial for a team to have a game under its belt, ironing out any early mistakes and getting into the rhythm of live competition? Or is it better to have the advantage of extra rest, preparation, and the element of surprise that comes from an opponent not yet knowing what to expect?
Teams that haven't played yet have the luxury of analyzing their Week 0 opponents' gameplay. They can fine-tune their strategies while retaining an element of mystery around their own game plans. Moreover, while their Week 0 opponents were busy preparing for their initial game, the Week 1 teams had uninterrupted time to focus on their upcoming matchup.
Cool, But What Does the Data Say?
Looking at historical data against the spread (ATS), teams playing their season opener against an opponent that has already played have generally had an advantage. achieving a 61-34 ATS record (64%) over the last decade plus. Last season there were 5 such spots and the trend went 4-1 ATS.
This season, we once again have 5 spots:
Georgia State +22.5 @ Georgia Tech
Boston College +17 @ FSU
Troy -9.5 vs Nevada
UCLA -13.5 @ Hawaii
Arizona -30.5 vs New Mexico
And by the way, the Boston College vs. Florida State game is the only conference matchup among these examples. If we only look at teams starting their season against a conference rival that played in Week 0, they have gone 14-3 ATS (82%).
This angle is simply one to consider when assessing a unique situation that arises only a few times each season in Week 1. It might help decide whether to place a bet or stay away from a game that seems uncertain.