by Phil White - March 8th, 2025
We’ve got an exciting NBA slate lined up, and after digging into the matchups, I’ve identified two player props that present great value. Let’s break them down.
📌 LeBron James More Than 14.5 Rebounds + Assists
LeBron James has taken on an even bigger role since the departure of Anthony Davis, becoming the Lakers’ primary rebounder while still maintaining his role as the lead playmaker. Over his last 10 games, LeBron is averaging 10 rebounds and 6 assists — that’s 16 combined rebounds and assists, comfortably over this line.
With AD out, LeBron is spending more time in the paint and getting more chances to clean up on the boards, while also facilitating the offense more frequently. Even though he's playing off the ball more, his playmaking instincts and court vision make him a consistent source of both rebounds and assists. In a game where the Lakers may need to grind out possessions, expect LeBron to fill up the stat sheet.
📌 Jaylen Brown Less Than 26.5 Points
This is an alt line with value - Jaylen Brown is working his way back from an injury, and this sets up as a tough spot for him to hit his scoring prop. Since the Lakers acquired Luka, they’ve been the top-rated defense in the league, allowing the fewest points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games.
This game also projects to be a massive pace-down spot — both the Lakers and Celtics rank in the bottom five in pace. That means fewer possessions, fewer scoring chances, and more defensive intensity. Brown will have to be extremely efficient to hit this number, but given the matchup and the pace, it's hard to see him getting enough opportunities to clear 26.5 points. The under looks like a strong play here.
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