Top NBA Picks for Tuesday 3-18

by Phil White - March 18th, 2025

We’ve got an exciting NBA slate lined up, and after digging into the matchups, I’ve identified several player props that present great value. Let’s break them down.

📌 Onyeka Okongwu Over 15.5 Points

Onyeka Okongwu has quietly become a major offensive weapon since stepping into a full-time starting role for the Hawks. In 27 starts this season, Okongwu is averaging over 14 points per game and has cleared this line in four of his last five games. The one miss? That came against the Hornets, but it’s worth noting that Charlotte ranks bottom five in defensive efficiency and allows opposing centers to average 22 points per game on 54% shooting — so that miss was more of an outlier than a trend.

This is also a pace-up spot for the Hawks, with Charlotte ranking among the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. That means more possessions, more transition opportunities, and more chances for Okongwu to cash this over. The scoring volume and efficiency are there — this line feels a couple of points too low.

📌 Jimmy Butler Under 0.5 Made Threes

Shooting threes has never been Jimmy Butler's game, and that trend has become even more pronounced since he joined the Warriors. Butler is shooting just 22% from deep since arriving in Golden State, and he’s attempting fewer than two shots per game from beyond the arc. This is by design — the Warriors have won 14 of their last 16 games with Butler focusing more on defense, playmaking, and mid-range scoring rather than stretching the floor.

In other words, Butler knows his role, and it’s working. He hasn’t hit a three in six straight games and hasn’t attempted more than two in any of those. This line is inflated based on reputation, not reality — fade Butler’s three-point game with confidence.

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