Top NBA Picks Monday 3-17

by Phil White - March 17th, 2025

We’ve got an exciting NBA slate lined up, and after digging into the matchups, I’ve identified several player props that present great value. Let’s break them down.

📌 Quentin Grimes Over 20.5 Points

Quentin Grimes is primed for another big scoring night with the injury report stacking up for the Sixers. With Kelly Oubre, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George all listed on the team’s injury report, Grimes should see a significant uptick in both usage and shot volume. He’s thrived in these situations lately, averaging 23 points per game over his last 10 outings, which includes a 40-point explosion and multiple 30-point performances. With a thin rotation and more offensive responsibility, Grimes should have no trouble clearing this number.

📌 Trey Murphy Over 21.5 Points

Trey Murphy is another player in line for a usage bump with Zion Williamson listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Murphy has been incredibly productive when Zion sits, averaging 21 points per game without him this season. On top of that, this game sets up as a major pace-up spot against the Pistons — who rank top five in possessions per game this season. That means more transition opportunities and additional possessions for Murphy to capitalize on. The volume should be there, and Murphy has the scoring efficiency to take advantage of it.

📌 Mikal Bridges Under 1.5 Made Threes

Bridges is in a bit of a shooting slump, and I don’t expect it to improve tonight — especially without Jalen Brunson available to create open looks. Over his last 10 games, Bridges is shooting just 28% from deep — down from his season average of 35% — and attempting only 4 shots from beyond the arc per game. Without Brunson drawing defensive attention and setting him up, Bridges’ shot quality and volume are taking a major hit. This is a great spot to fade him at an inflated line.

📌 Khris Middleton Under 1.5 Made Threes

Middleton’s 3-point line looks inflated after a rare six-attempt game against Denver — a team that’s allowed the second-most 3-point attempts in the league over the last three games. But overall, Middleton is averaging just 3.7 attempts per game while shooting 24% from deep in 24 minutes per game. In other words, he’s a low-volume, low-efficiency shooter — and his limited court time makes it tough for him to clear this line consistently. This is a perfect spot to fade Middleton at an overvalued number.

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