From title fights to career-defining matchups, UFC 302 is set to captivate fight fans worldwide with its blend of raw athleticism, strategic prowess, and sheer determination. While bettors will look to the high-profile matchups, we can dive a bit deeper to find excellent value on a couple of low-key underdogs. Lets dive in...
Phil Rowe (+136) vs Jake Matthews (-162)
Jake Matthews, the "Celtic Kid," is up against the towering Phil Rowe. Matthews has had a solid run, but his kryptonite seems to be fighters who can keep their distance and pepper him with straight shots. Enter Phil Rowe, with a staggering 7.5-inch reach advantage. Let me tell you, folks, that's not just a stat—that's a game-changer.
Historically, fighters with such a reach advantage boast about a 60% win rate and come in as the betting favorite. Rowe has historically been a UFC dog, and has cashed on that more often than not. His ability to maintain distance and utilize his reach is his primary tool, with good power in both hands. Matthews, on the other hand, struggled against Michael Morales, a longer and faster opponent. While Rowe may not have Morales' speed, we believe he can maintain distance. If not, Rowe has been working on his ground game in between fights, taking on grappling monsters like Gordon Ryan and Craig Jones, which could be a factor if this ends up on the ground.
Rowe hails from Brooklyn, and fighting close to home could provide that extra edge. He's been grinding, improving his grappling, and he’s not afraid to take it to the mat. I see Rowe taking this one, leveraging his reach, and potentially showcasing his ground skills.
Pick: Phil Rowe ML (+136)
Randy Brown (-180) vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+150)
Randy "Rude Boy" Brown steps into the octagon against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, who’s fresh off a draw against the feared prospect Rinat Fakhretdinov. Zaleski is a beast with notable wins over title contender Benoît Saint-Denis and a KO over Sean Strickland.
Brown’s got the reach, a whopping 78 inches, but historically, he has struggled against opponents who prefer to brawl in the pocket and employ solid Muay Thai. Zaleski fits this mold perfectly. He’s not shy about stepping into the fire and trading blows.
Now, you might be tempted to draw parallels between Brown's last bout against Muslim Salikhov and this one. It's a fair comparison. However, Zaleski's aggressive style and willingness to mix it up make this a different beast entirely. Brown will need to leverage his reach effectively and avoid getting drawn into a slugfest.
Brown has shown vulnerabilities when fighters close the distance. If Zaleski can navigate Brown’s reach and engage in close-quarter combat, he might just pull off the upset. Zaleski has stoppage wins over his last two opponents with a significant reach advantage, a KO over Strickland and Sub over Curtis Millender.
Keep an eye on this fight, and don’t be surprised if Zaleski dos Santos comes out on top. Consider a value bet here on the dog
Pick: Zaleski dos Santos ML (+150)
Don't forget to take advantage of code 'MONTH50', which will get you 50% off of your first month of picks here: https://bit.ly/40vqXyB